Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Golem (@web3_golem)
The ME token, which has been watched by many users for a long time, finally opened for airdrop applications and TGE last night.
The total supply of ME tokens is 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 125 million airdropped tokens, and the remaining tokens will be gradually released within 4 years. Due to the good price performance of recent airdrop projects such as Hyperliquid and Movement after TGE, and the fact that Magic Eden is currently the leader in the multi-chain NFT trading market, the community has high expectations before the token is launched:
"ME's opening price is expected to be $10, and it is expected to reach $30 in the long run"
“The ME airdrop distribution is relatively reasonable, taking care of most real users, platform big players, and yield farmers.”
“The price of ME is benchmarked against HYPE, but it shouldn’t be worse than MOVE’s opening.”
Of course, some community members still maintain their rationality, believing that the price before ME’s opening was already too high:
“I have already shorted ME in pre-market trading on OKX, and the current FDV is already higher than its intrinsic value.”
“Sell ME right at the opening; starting with a 10 billion FDV is just giving VC a chance to dump.”
So, what kind of script did the ME token claims and TEG follow yesterday? Is ME's price (current price 5.6 USD) still expected to reach 10 USD? Odaily Planet Daily will briefly introduce this in this article.
Listed on Binance and Upbit, pre-market price exceeds expectations
In the current market situation, if a token can be listed on Binance and Upbit, it is a major positive—Binance, as the 'largest exchange in the universe,' will bring the token the most traffic and liquidity; due to the closed and frenzied nature of the Korean market, a 'kimchi premium' phenomenon may form in bull markets, so Upbit, as the largest exchange in Korea, is expected to bring strong purchasing power for listed tokens and create short-term price differences with external markets.
Previously, MOVE announced its listing on three major exchanges (Binance, Upbit, and Coinbase), which also validated this positive phenomenon. Therefore, many players hoped or were even certain that ME would be listed on these three exchanges before its launch.
The script is indeed developing in this direction. On December 9th, according to @ai_9684xtpa's monitoring, Binance seemingly appeared among the ME holding addresses. The address AG8Xp...xW4PM had recharged 1 ME to Binance three days ago, and tracing back three levels of funding leads to the token deployment address. On December 10th, the community's speculation was validated when Binance announced it would launch ME spot trading, subsequently, according to OKX pre-market trading data, ME surged past 6 USDT in pre-market trading, with a 24H increase of 33.82%.
While the community was still excited, another good news came on the afternoon of December 10th, when Upbit announced it would launch ME/KRW, USDT, and BTC trading pairs. Subsequently, according to OKX pre-market trading data, ME surged to 7.45 USDT in pre-market trading, achieving a 24H increase of 55.75%. At this price, ME's initial circulating market value exceeded 930 million USD, with an FDV exceeding 7.4 billion USD.
The pre-opening price of ME has greatly exceeded the market's previous expectations when the token economics were just announced (3 to 4 USD). Optimistic players believe that ME will start with a valuation of 10 billion and continue to rise, while more pessimistic players, whose psychological price has been reached, are considering quickly claiming the airdrop and selling.
OKX reaches peak after launch, with severe price differences between exchanges and on-chain
OKX announced that it would open ME spot trading at 22:00 (UTC+8) on December 10th, making it the first mainstream exchange to open ME trading. As a result, many users chose to deposit ME to trade on OKX. The performance of ME at OKX can be described as stunning; according to OKX's market data, ME broke through 22 USDT after opening, reaching a peak of 22.632 USDT, but then it fell sharply.
However, according to community discussions, due to the huge traffic in claiming airdrops, retail investors were unable to claim ME when OKX opened at 22:00; it was only after 22:30 that ME token claims gradually returned to normal. At that time, ME’s price on OKX had also dropped to between 5.6 and 4.8 USDT, below the pre-market price on OKX. The community has jokingly dubbed this phenomenon as the 'VC coin unique phenomenon of leading the way.'
Although ME's price on OKX has fallen, many players still hold expectations for ME because Binance and Upbit have yet to be launched, and some have even engaged in bottom fishing and going long. However, at 23:00 on December 10th, when Binance officially opened ME spot trading, ME's price peaked at 6.24 USDT, far from what many players expected. Under the influence of sentiment, ME's price on Binance then fell sharply, reaching a low of 4.137 USDT.
In addition, there are also price differences between ME across various exchanges and on-chain. After Binance opened, ME maintained a price difference of 0.3 to 0.6 USDT between OKX and Binance. This morning at 9:30 AM, Upbit announced it would open ME spot trading, with ME prices reaching a maximum of 11.3 USDT, over 60% premium compared to other major CEXs. Perhaps influenced by Upbit, at 10:00 AM, ME's price on Binance reached a maximum of 8 USDT, while on OKX, ME was only priced at 7.09 USDT at the same time.
Price difference of ME on Binance and OKX (left is Binance, right is OKX)
At the same time, there is also a price difference between CEX and DEX. According to Raydium data, at 10:00 AM, the price of ME in the ME/USDC pool was between 9 to 10 USDT, higher than the prices on Binance and OKX.
The price of ME on Raydium
Coinbase announced this morning that ME is now available on coinbase.com and the Coinbase iOS and Android apps, allowing Coinbase customers to log in to buy, sell, convert, send, receive, or store these assets. However, this did not provide much upward stimulus for ME’s price.
Can ME reach 10 US again?
The price of ME rising to 10 USDT has become the psychological price point for many community members, but since Binance listed ME, its price has only peaked at 8 USDT. Although OKX opened above 22 USDT, most retail investors were unable to sell at that price. Whether ME can reach 10 USDT again fundamentally depends on whether Magic Eden is worth a 10 billion valuation. Previously, Twitter KOL Shatterwolf compared ME's market value with other projects, as shown in the image below.
Before ME's launch, if calculated at pre-market prices, Magic Eden's circulating market value had already surpassed the FDV of other NFT trading markets like Tensor and Blur. From the data, while Magic Eden's market share in Solana NFTs is indeed less than that of the leading Tensor, it has performed excellently in supporting and developing multi-chain NFTs, especially holding an absolute leading advantage in the Bitcoin NFT and Rune trading markets.
Many opinions also compare ME with the TEG performance of HYPE and MOVE, arguing that the initial circulating supply of ME is even smaller than HYPE, and it is also a highly profitable project. In terms of exchange support, ME is similar to MOVE, having also been listed on major exchanges like Binance and Upbit. Therefore, many users believe that the price of ME should at least maintain above 10 USDT for a considerable period.
However, the current situation for Magic Eden is not as optimistic as described above. In terms of products, the rise and fall of a trading market always depends on the development of its ecosystem. Currently, the Bitcoin ecosystem is in a bear market, and none of the top 10 NFT projects by market cap are Bitcoin NFTs (Bitcoin Puppets ranks 12th), and in the currently hot Solana market, its share is still less than Tensor, making it difficult to support a 10 billion valuation.
Based on the price performance of previous airdrop projects this year, the opening price is generally the peak, and it is hard to see a second wave of market sentiment after it fades. MOVE has currently also retraced to around 0.68 USDT, with FDV dropping to about 6.7 billion USD, so it remains difficult for ME to reach 10 USDT again.
