Profits are the protagonist of every business story and the eternal topic in our lives. Lao Li adheres to the principles of prudence, specialization and sincerity to carefully create each analysis article, which is distinctive, not pretentious, and uses down-to-earth words and precise analysis to explore the value and risks behind Bitcoin. I am willing to work with you to create a win-win situation!
BTC plunged more than 7,000 points in the morning, and is now entering a new round of consolidation. The recent two rounds of bulls have been cut badly, and the data of long positions is more than ten times that of short positions. Take the morning data as an example. Within 24 hours, BTC's entire network was liquidated by 191 million; long positions accounted for 150 million; short positions accounted for only 40.55 million. However, from Lao Li's perspective, liquidation also makes the overall market position structure healthier. When a large number of liquidations occur and Bitcoin is forced to be sold, the supply on the market temporarily increases, but when this part of the unstable factors is eliminated, the supply and demand relationship in the subsequent market will be rebalanced, creating conditions for subsequent price increases. At the same time, it alleviates the market's fear of potential risks, thereby attracting funds to re-enter the market, which is also the consistent rule of the market.
Short-term news tonight needs to be focused on, Microsoft voting on whether to invest in Bitcoin. If Microsoft votes in favor tonight, Bitcoin is expected to soar again, and this will certainly benefit altcoins as well. Perhaps this round of intraday correction is providing an opportunity for Microsoft to get in? Considering the news, from Lao Li's perspective, the current sideways market is still cautious, and most investors might be waiting to see whether Microsoft will actually invest before deciding on Bitcoin buying and selling operations. On the other hand, MicroStrategy conducted another large-scale Bitcoin acquisition yesterday. They purchased 21,550 Bitcoins for approximately $2.1 billion, with an average price of about $98,783 per Bitcoin. This transaction increased MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin holdings to 423,650 coins, acquired at about $60,324 each, totaling approximately $2.56 billion spent. Saylor emphasized that this purchase not only increased the company's Bitcoin reserves but also achieved an annualized return of 68.7%.
This data indicates that MicroStrategy is generating positive returns on its Bitcoin investments, and the high return rate will attract more companies' attention in the market. Currently, MicroStrategy holds the second largest amount of Bitcoin globally, second only to BlackRock. Looking at the bigger picture, MicroStrategy's continuous purchases are one of the core factors for Bitcoin's future price increase. The data mentioned in the midday post reflects that the Bitcoin spot ETF has shown net inflows for eight consecutive days, further indicating bullish market sentiment. From a future perspective, the longer the price oscillates and consolidates around the 100,000 mark, the stronger the future support will be. If Microsoft does not pass the vote tonight, significant price increases may have to wait until interest rate cuts and the nearing of Trump’s re-election. Of course, based on various factors, while long-term benefits are evident, short-term risks should not be overlooked. Before the market provides further signals, short-term users should try to enter with light positions.
Returning to the market, the current price of BTC is 97,093. The daily Bollinger Bands have returned to the middle track, indicating a potential upward price correction in the short term observed on the 1-hour candlestick chart. The MACD histogram is gradually moving up, showing that bullish momentum is strengthening in the short term. From the four-hour MACD perspective, both DIF and DEA are trending down, indicating certain bearish pressure in the short term, but the MACD histogram shows that bearish momentum is gradually weakening. In the short term, the 97,500 level has not fully stabilized; waiting for the price to pull back to around 96,900-97,150 to go long, with profit-taking set around the 98,000-98,200 level; be cautious of two bottom tests in the early morning, and be sure to set stop-loss orders.
