Hello everyone, I am Crypto Mu Bai, and everyone affectionately calls me Big White.
Based on the concepts involved in the project, comparing the benchmarks, the project's background and enthusiasm before the launch, pre-market prices, and market conditions at the time of the launch as reference factors.
1. Concepts involved: move is $MOVE and modularization combined L2 public chain, so compared to various concept leaders, the move system is APT and Sui, modularization is TIA, L2 is OP, ARB, STRK, zk.
The market value of Sui has reached 100 billion, and APT also has a market value of over 50 billion. It is unlikely that simply relying on numerous exchanges to launch will directly open with a market value of tens of billions.
So these two large market values have no comparability! Combined with the pre-market trading price being around 0.5, then comparing with OP, TIA, STRK, zk makes it very comparable.
Through the price comparison table, it can be found that,
When move is around 0.4, it is equivalent to the market value of zK.
When move is 0.77, it is equivalent to the market value of STRK.
When move is between 1.5-1.6, it is equivalent to the price of OP and TIA.
Based on enthusiasm and evaluations from most KOLs in the market, as well as pre-market trading prices,
The market believes that the lower limit of move is higher than zk, which is above 0.4, meaning if you can buy at 0.4-0.5, that would be best and the cost performance would be highest!
But considering that the current market is in a bull market and the heat created by all exchanges launching simultaneously, there will definitely be a premium, generally around 20% is reasonable! So that would be around 0.6-0.7, and this price is equivalent to the market value of STRK, buying a higher enthusiasm MOVE at the market value of STRK is evidently reasonable!
So predicting the price trend at the opening also requires predicting the trend after the opening. Because there are many airdrops, the first wave after the opening is likely to sell off.
But such high enthusiasm will lead to exaggerated buying pressure, so after digesting the airdrop selling pressure, it is necessary.
So how high can it go?
Combining the thoughts of most large funds, I generally believe that large funds will sell when they have doubled, possibly taking out the principal, or when they reach a market value with no cost performance, the capital will start to be cautious, and selling pressure will be greater than net inflow.
If calculated at a price that can be bought at 0.6-0.7, then doubling would be 1.2-1.4, while reaching this price would mean a market value slightly lower than OP and TIA. Considering the market sentiment is high, a premium up to 1.5 is my psychological upper limit!
That is, when the market value is close to the market values of OP and TIA.
In my view, buying move again would be of no cost performance!
After all, TIA and OP are the consensus leaders of the L2 sector and modularization sector formed through long-term market accumulation. A new coin with high enthusiasm is unlikely to immediately overpower the leaders upon launch!
So this is why I say if the move price rises above 15, I won't understand it! But obviously the market is both euphoric and rational!
A perfect opportunity, this experience you can learn and apply is the process. First, gather information from all aspects of the market, as well as investment research reports to understand the fundamentals of the project, and first select the corresponding benchmarks to compare market values;
Then, through the quality of the exchanges listed in the project's pre-launch announcement to further estimate the project's enthusiasm, and determine whether there is an airdrop at the opening, then using pre-market trading prices to judge the market's valuation of reasonable prices, and finally integrate various information to find out the upper and lower limits.
The closer it is to the lower limit, the higher the rationality, and it should further add or reduce the premium based on the market's hot state! The impact of a hot or cold market on a new coin is enormous!
ME will also go on major exchanges tonight; depending on the situation of the launch, it might be worth a rush, replicating the path of MOVE, there is a chance, spot can be laid out.
USUAL spot can also be laid out a bit, having tripled with a market value of over 200 million, completely in a bullish trend! Compared to ENA's 1.4 billion market value, there is still 6 times. It's not a big issue to reach 1U, current price around 0.688, rationally allocate your positions.
Floki, there is good news this week, and a meme coin called Monky, which cooperates with Ape, will airdrop to Floki holders. You can buy some spot; there will be an airdrop. Binance has announced support for the airdrop, but I haven't seen announcements from other exchanges, so prioritize buying on Binance. Current price around 0.0*2326.
Including ACT, it has returned to the cost line of the last time the dog traders doubled in one day. One could say that now everyone is reversing to pick people up, and it can also be bought. My suggestion is that meme can occupy 50-60% of the spot position. Because this sector will persist through bull and bear markets, as long as there is no sector that is a hot spot or no market rally effect, everyone will play with meme.
Market conditions are not easy, choosing is very important!
Big White focuses on tracking high-quality blockchain projects
Short to medium-term and harmonious strategies, medium to long-term spot layout!
1. Daily market analysis;
2. Research and analysis of investment tracks;
3. First-hand information on the international frontier of the market;
4. Grabbing leading stocks in major hot sectors;
5. Timely reminders of positive and negative policy news;
6. Accurately grasping the strategy of bottom fishing and escaping from the secondary market.
