Analyzing the current position of the market and the altcoin trend from four perspectives:
1. From the first image, the altcoin season of 2020 started on December 28, 2020, and the altcoin season of 2024 started on November 18, 2024. I have marked our current position in the image.
2. Looking at the Pi Cycle Top Indicator in the second image, the first intersection appeared on April 15, 2021, and so far in 2024, there has been no intersection yet; it is still early for a top.
3. Check the Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator in the third image: in March 2021, the AHR999 reached 9, while today’s indicator is only 1.48, which is a huge difference.
4. In the last 24 hours, a total of 545,336 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.649 billion.
Today, the losses in altcoins are enormous, with the liquidation amount reaching an all-time high, far exceeding the amounts on March 12, May 19, and August 5 of this year. The price of BTC is rising, so the liquidation amounts are also increasing, and the contract market is becoming more mature.
Summary: After a few days of fluctuations, the market will recover, followed by a celebration and dance. Note that the market may continue to experience sharp fluctuations or sudden reversals. In my personal opinion, it is basically very difficult to drop below the position of 93,000.
