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Macro News

1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. The meeting pointed out that next year, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented, the policy toolbox should be enriched and improved, extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments should be strengthened, and a policy "combination punch" should be launched to improve the foresight, pertinence and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation. The meeting emphasized that to do a good job in economic work next year, it is necessary to stabilize the property and stock markets, prevent and resolve risks and external shocks in key areas, stabilize expectations, stimulate vitality, and promote a sustained recovery in the economy.

2. The National Bureau of Statistics said that from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 0.2% in November, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, mainly driven by the decline in food price increases. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rise, up 0.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. In November, a series of stock policies and incremental policies worked together, and domestic demand for industrial products recovered. The PPI turned from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%, and the year-on-year decline narrowed.

3. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of December 9, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 3032.96 points, up 7.2% from the previous period.

4. The Shanghai Clearing House Co., Ltd. issued an announcement stating that in order to further promote the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy, the Shanghai Clearing House and the Cross-Border Interbank Payment Clearing Co., Ltd. will launch cross-border RMB clearing and settlement services for spot commodity clearing business starting from the 9th, and provide funds clearing and settlement services for Hainan International Energy Trading Center Co., Ltd.'s copper spot cross-border transactions.

Global futures market changes

1. Domestic commodity futures closed generally higher at night, with most energy and chemical products rising, including glass up 5.09%, butadiene rubber up 4.42%, soda ash up 3.17%, PVC up 2.68%, PTA up 2.35%, crude oil up 2.03%, and LPG up 1.98%. The black series performed strongly, with coke up 5.6%, coking coal up 4.56%, rebar up 3.34%, iron ore up 2.74%, and hot-rolled coil up 2.61%. Agricultural products rose across the board, with rapeseed meal up 2.06%, soybean oil up 1.32%, corn up 1.2%, soybean meal up 1.16%, and soybean oil up 1.06%. Basic metals closed higher across the board, with Shanghai tin up 2.13%, Shanghai zinc up 1.55%, stainless steel up 1.24%, and Shanghai copper up 1.04%. Reported at 531.9 yuan per barrel. Shanghai gold rose 0.87%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.29%.

2. London base metals closed with mixed gains and losses, with LME copper futures up 1.19% at $9,231.5/ton, LME zinc futures up 1.84% at $3,128/ton, LME nickel futures down 0.45% at $15,975/ton, LME aluminum futures down 0.27% at $2,596.5/ton, LME tin futures up 2.62% at $29,915/ton and LME lead futures down 0.27% at $2,066/ton.

3. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.88% to $2,683 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.73% to $32.45 per ounce.

4. International oil prices rose across the board, with the January 2025 contract of U.S. crude oil rising 1.43% to $68.16 per barrel, and the February 2025 contract of Brent crude oil rising 1.1% to $71.90 per barrel.

5. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures down 0.43% at 989.5 cents per bushel; corn futures up 0.28% at 441.25 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up 0.18% at 558.25 cents per bushel.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, from December 2 to December 8, 2024, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 26.329 million tons, an increase of 1.644 million tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 25.172 million tons, an increase of 2.262 million tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at six northern ports was 13.209 million tons, an increase of 2.214 million tons from the previous month.

2. According to Mysteel, from December 2 to December 8, 2024, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 21.469 million tons, a decrease of 3.875 million tons from the previous month. Australia's shipments were 16.157 million tons, a decrease of 1.585 million tons from the previous month, of which Australia's shipments to China were 14.120 million tons, an increase of 384,000 tons from the previous month. Brazil's shipments were 5.312 million tons, a decrease of 2.290 million tons from the previous month.

3. According to SMM, Hebei Jinxi Steel plans to shut down a 2000m³ blast furnace for maintenance in mid-December. The maintenance is expected to last 20 days, affecting 4,600 tons of molten iron per day. Due to environmental protection restrictions, Hebei Jinding Heavy Industry, Hebei Wenan Steel, and Xinxing Casting Pipe Co., Ltd. shut down a 1080m³ blast furnace, a 1080m³ blast furnace, and a 308m³ blast furnace on December 9, respectively. The resumption time is to be determined, affecting a total of 7,500 tons of molten iron per day.

4. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the first week of December 2024, a total of 5 working days, Brazil's iron ore was 6.7008 million tons, compared with 39.3317 million tons in December last year. The average daily shipment volume was 1.3402 million tons/day, a decrease of 31.85% from 1.9666 million tons/day in December last year.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. Mysteel research shows that as of December 6, 2024, the commercial soybean oil inventory in key areas across the country was 982,300 tons, a decrease of 70,700 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 6.71%; the commercial palm oil inventory in key areas across the country was 516,700 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous week, an increase of 7.04%.

2. According to Mysteel, as of December 5, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with a total inventory of 502,100 tons. The total commercial cotton inventory was 2.9139 million tons, an increase of 344,900 tons (13.43%) from the previous week.

3. According to incomplete statistics from Mutian Technology, the total number of sugar mills in Guangxi in the 24/25 crushing season has reached 69, an increase of 9 year-on-year; the designed daily crushing capacity is 55.25 tons, an increase of 66,500 tons year-on-year. Currently, only 6 sugar mills in Guangxi have not started crushing, and it is expected that crushing will be completed around mid-December. Since the 07/08 crushing season, the highest sugar production in Guangxi in December was 1.92 million tons. According to the current crushing progress and sugar yield performance, it is expected to break a new high this year.

4. According to Wind data, as of December 9, 2024, the national port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.87807 million tons, and on December 2 it was 7.76172 million tons, an increase of 116,350 tons from the previous month.

5. Consulting firm AgRural said on Monday that as of last Thursday, 95% of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean planting was complete, and 95% of the 2024/25 first-quarter corn planting in the central and southern regions of Brazil was also complete.

6. The weekly export inspection report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that as of the week of December 5, 2024, the United States shipped 847,025 tons of soybeans to China (mainland). The previous week, the United States shipped 952,095 tons of soybeans to mainland China. The export inspection volume of soybeans from the United States to China accounted for 52.21% of the total export inspection volume that week, and 45.59% last week.

7. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the first week of December 2024, a total of 665,700 tons of soybeans were shipped in 5 working days, compared with 3,828,700 tons in December last year. The average daily shipping volume was 133,100 tons/day, a decrease of 30.45% from 191,400 tons/day in December last year.

8. According to CONAB, the national commodity supply company under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 8, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 94.1%, 90.0% last week, and 89.9% in the same period last year.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Longzhong Information, the total sample inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports is 26,900 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous cycle, an increase of 58.24%. The commodity inventory is 17,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous cycle, an increase of 70%. It is expected that there will be less port pick-up, and the port inventory may accumulate slightly in the short term. However, according to the data, it is still at the bottom of the historical period.

2. According to Longzhong Information data, as of December 8, 2024, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao under bonded and general trade was 434,000 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous period, an increase of 2.8%. The inventory in the bonded area was 56,800 tons, an increase of 4.6%; the inventory in general trade was 378,000 tons, an increase of 2.55%.

Metal Hot News

1. According to the China Passenger Car Association, the national passenger car market sold 2.423 million vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% and a month-on-month increase of 7.1%. The cumulative sales so far this year reached 20.257 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. In November, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.268 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 50.5%.

2. According to Cailianshe, there have been market rumors recently that domestic lithium iron phosphate companies are planning to collectively control production capacity, following the example of the photovoltaic module industry. In this regard, Defang Nano staff said, "I have not heard of (information related to collective control of production capacity)... The current operating rate is over 90%. Hunan Yuneng staff said, "I am not sure, I have not heard of relevant information." Wanrun New Energy said, "I have not learned of such information. The company's operating rate and production operations are all good, and the capacity utilization rate is still relatively high."

3. According to Mysteel, the polysilicon output of China's mainstream polysilicon companies in November 2024 was 110,000 tons, a decrease of 16.52% from the previous month and a decrease of 29.81% from November 2023. It is estimated that the polysilicon production in December 2024 will be around 95,000 tons, a decrease of 13.79% from the previous month.

4. According to Hong Kong Economic Times, citing sources, the London Metal Exchange (LME) under the Hong Kong Exchange is considering including Hong Kong as a commodity trading warehouse and delivery location in response to the government's development plan.

5. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the first week of December 2024, a total of 12,400 tons of copper ore and copper concentrate were shipped in 5 working days, compared with 155,800 tons in December last year. The average daily shipment volume was 2,500 tons/day, a decrease of 68.1% from 7,800 tons/day in December last year.

6. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, in the first week of December 2024, a total of 1,500 tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate were shipped in 5 working days, compared with 340,800 tons in December last year. The average daily shipment volume was 3,000 tons/day, a decrease of 98.26% from 17,000 tons/day in December last year.

Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Coking coal continued its downward trend last week. Pay attention to the implementation of the meeting!

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that on Monday, coking coal led the decline in the black series, and the price hit a two-month low. At present, terminal demand is in the seasonal off-season, steel prices fluctuated and fell, steel mills have poor profits and the pace of replenishment has slowed down, the demand for coke spot has weakened slightly, and the fourth round of price increases and reductions for coke has begun. However, the production and supply of domestic coal mines continues to increase, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal remains at a high level, and the overall supply of coking coal is becoming more relaxed. Therefore, the increase and reduction of coke by steel mills is more borne by coking coal. It is expected that there will be 1-2 rounds of steel mills to increase and reduce prices in the future, and coking coal may still be driven by the decline. However, from the perspective of the downward space, Mongolian coal has fallen below the long-term contract price in the fourth quarter, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has declined. The continued downward trend may cause traders to hold prices, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of chasing shorts. At the same time, an important meeting will be held this week. The pattern of weak reality and strong expectations may intensify the market's long-short game. If the policy is implemented beyond expectations, coking coal may be expected to stabilize its price under macro disturbances.

2. Container shipping to Europe plunged under pressure in the late trading. Is there still a possibility of a rebound in the short term?

Huawen Futures analysis pointed out that on Monday, the main container shipping contract maintained a volatile trend during the day and plunged under pressure in late trading, closing at 2505 points, a decrease of 4.29%. The far-month contract was disturbed by geopolitical sentiment, and the trading atmosphere throughout the day was weak, and the overall decline was more significant. Looking at the market outlook, the current declared increase level is basically the same as that announced in December, resulting in weak sentiment. Some pricing shipping companies in the market are unable to support the price and pay more attention to the subsequent actual opening quotations for gaming. Pay attention to Maersk’s subsequent opening prices in the 52nd week and changes in effective capacity in January. The market's divergence in expectations for spot freight prices in February will amplify market fluctuations. Based on the fact that spot freight rates are still on the upward trend and the attribute of more delivery weeks in 2002 covering the early stage of slow decline in freight rates, the European line may stabilize and rebound in the short term.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 12:30 on December 10, MPOB Malaysia Palm Oil Supply and Demand Report. According to a survey conducted by Reuters, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to fall to 1.79 million tons in November 2024, down 5.1% from October due to heavy rains disrupting production; production is expected to be 1.69 million tons, down 6.13% from the previous month, the third consecutive month of decline; exports are expected to fall 12% to 1.52 million tons.

2. December 10th (tbd), ITS/AmSpec/SGS will announce the Malaysian palm oil export data from December 1st to 10th. Previously, the data from November 1st to 10th showed that the Malaysian palm oil export fell by more than 10% month-on-month. Pay attention to whether the export demand has recovered this month.

3. December 10th, to be determined, China's November trade account. Previous data showed that in the first 10 months of this year, the total value of my country's import and export of goods was 36.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Among them, exports were 20.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%; imports were 15.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%.

4. December 10th, to be determined, the monthly supply and demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Last month, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' agricultural product supply and demand situation analysis report raised China's corn imports by 410,000 tons in 2023/24 and raised soybean imports by 2.45 million tons to 104.74 million tons in 2023/24. Pay attention to the changes in soybean data this month.

5. USDA monthly supply and demand report at 01:00 on December 11. In the 23 December reports from 2001 to 2023, Brazil and Argentina adjusted their soybean production 3 times and 5 times respectively. According to the analysis of the Grain and Oil Market Report, based on the weather conditions in the production areas in November, there will not be a major adjustment to Brazil's soybean production in the December report, and the maximum adjustment will be around 1 million tons.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data