Today, BTC broke $100,000, a day worth commemorating. I saw many posts in my friend circle, including several bosses from the internet and traditional physical economy, indicating their deepening recognition of this cryptocurrency.
Yesterday even Putin said BTC is unstoppable; everyone is trying to lower transaction and communication costs, and BTC is a great medium.
In recent years, I have been bullish on BTC. A year and a half ago, I even wrote an article (not getting off the train if it’s below 100,000).
Many people dislike BTC because it diverts traditional financial resources. It’s like you were doing well at Casino A, and suddenly Casino B (BTC) opens next door. In the traditional financial market, A's clients would withdraw funds to play at B, which is a blow to A.
The fundamental reason why Jack Ma fell into a censorship storm after his speech in Shanghai years ago, even directly burying the dream of Ant Financial's IPO, is that he touched the cheese of the old banking financial system and boldly stated he would eliminate the inactive banks.
More than ten years ago, BTC has come a long way, being criticized all the way, almost facing total collapse and death several times, each time coming back to life, especially when it was criticized the most, with claims that the A-shares are robust while virtual currencies are ultimately a scam.
In the adult world, there is no right or wrong, only conflicting interests. Essentially, it is a 'dispute of interests' between Casino A and Casino B.
BTC is now at $100,000, which is a slap in the face. It's not just the former programmers playing; the community is supporting it, including many traditional funds, sovereign wealth funds, and even Microsoft strategy funds, with many national leaders being supporters, etc.
If you really say what BTC has created, it seems like it has, yet it seems like it hasn't. Are there chains that transfer faster than BTC? Yes, there are many; even just ETH is better than it. Not to mention the ecosystem, what ecosystem does BTC have? Playing inscriptions is just leftover from the past, but it doesn’t affect its ability to reopen a wealth festival and myth through BRC20.
Rather than saying BTC has disrupted people's understanding of currency, it is more accurate to say it has disrupted people's understanding of wealth accumulation. Whether it is simply speculating on BTC, or imitating it, or BTC 3.0, as long as you change the story, if you understand it early, you have the potential to get rich.
As many people say, don't worry about whether this thing is right or wrong; the most important thing is whether it can make money.
There are too many listed companies in A-shares; some make money, while others do not. The key is that even many profitable companies see no rise in their stocks. What’s the point of holding non-profitable stocks if you don’t pay me a salary or provide company benefits?
Therefore, in financial investment, we care more about 'whether this thing can make money' and 'the correctness can be discussed later.'
BTC belongs to a new generation of young capital breaking free from old financial capital, creating another distributed financial world, redefining the rules of the game and the form of wealth, embodying a spirit of rebellion of new things against old things.
In the short term, $100,000 will not be the peak; it's just a cyclical peak. In 5 or 10 years, BTC may rise to $200,000 or $300,000, which is entirely possible, but this process will certainly experience many brutal washouts. It will wash out until BTC is considered a scam, and when faith collapses, BTC will stand on a new high.
Every rebirth signifies renewal, which perfectly describes BTC's journey over the years. After discussing BTC, let's talk about altcoins.
"In recent days, altcoins have surged vigorously: XRP increased sixfold in a month, XLM sevenfold, DOGE fourfold in a month, TRX doubled in one night, BNB reached a historical high, and many others also saw daily increases of 100%. This is a super bull market."
However, a month ago, altcoins were indeed suffering. Many familiar old coins were continuously delisted, collapsing on the eve of the bull market. Until a month ago, there were still doubts about whether this year would have an altcoin season. The market has answered with actions: there has never been a bull market without a wave of altcoins! The new waves push the old waves, while the old waves die on the beach.
Undoubtedly, by 2025, many old altcoins will exit the historical stage.
In the next two years, many will reach new historical highs, and many altcoins have already anticipated the doomsday trend, locking in the most glorious heights of their project prices ahead of BTC. BTC rises and falls; however, the fate of most altcoins is to rise and fall to zero, falling repeatedly until they reach zero.
So, why can BTC be eternal, but altcoins cannot? Most altcoins will not last more than 5 years, many will reach zero in 3 years. Thus, holding altcoins for a long time carries certain risks, and one must pay close attention to how altcoins perform in a bull market. Especially from 2017 to 2018, very few of the ICO era have survived to this day. Even in a bull market, breaking historical highs is very difficult.
Of course, there are a few robust ones, like XRP and TRX, which operate in a corporate manner, but in the short term, the risks are also considerable.
Therefore, if altcoins rise significantly, especially when a main rising wave occurs, please be cautious about taking profits. The next two years will be the final cycle for many coins; they cannot endure until the next cycle, the next BTC halving.
Even if many coins sell now, looking back, you might have missed the main rising wave, but it will still be a relatively high position, especially some altcoins from garbage exchanges, which are hot coins leveraging the bull market, etc. BTC breaking $100,000 is a relatively important card held by the bulls.
Regarding interpretation, some people will feel the future is bright, while others will feel there's no card to play after the good news is realized.
The short-term market will have significant potential volatility, especially many coins have surged vigorously in the past few days, with daily doubles being common. If your altcoin rises more than 30% or 50% in a single day, please pay attention to risk management.
Regarding contracts, BTC reaching $100,000 is not just a celebration; from another perspective, it is the beginning of a new massacre, mainly driven by contracts.
I see many people around me starting to open long and short contracts, with millions being common. This morning, I even saw one long position at $96,000 with a margin of 200 million, and a liquidation price at $82,000. After BTC skyrockets, it will attract many long and short contracts, leading to fierce competition between bulls and bears. It will inevitably end with one side suffering a devastating defeat, even if it doesn't break $100,000, at $80,000 to $90,000, in corners we are unaware of, many bears will completely perish, dying silently, becoming super fuel for the bull market.
Therefore, the contract market at $100,000, the story of a showdown at over 10,000 meters, will only intensify.
In the coming month, we will soon see many giant whale long and short positions being liquidated on some coin APPs. This data may generate the largest liquidation data ever! For winners, this is also the biggest piece of meat in their bull market.
If spot trading is about earning future cash flow, contracts are the naked chips stained with blood from another competitor. To say something that most may not want to hear, even witnessing the bull market, 90% of people will still become the fuel for this game; this is a predetermined game design parameter. They will criticize this game fiercely at the bottom of the next cycle and then leave in pain.
Thus, the closer we get to a bull market, the more relaxed yet tense we must be! I hope the people around me can enjoy the feast of the bull market, instead of becoming the providers of this feast, and manage risks as much as possible.
Cryptocurrency is a market worth long-term investment; 2-3 months do not count as investment; even half a year is merely short-term speculation.
On a yearly basis, we slowly build faith on the collapsing ruins, retain our original intention, persevere, endure the deep bear market, then quietly exit amid the boiling clamor, and continue to build hope in a new round of collapsing faith, repeating the cycle... enjoying the bull market...!
