The question is more than just theoretical. For many traders, comprehending the macroeconomic environment is crucial for devising even short-term strategies. One of the most ancient adages in trading is “the trend is your friend.” In a market where prices tend to rise, traders are “long-biased,” and shorting can be detrimental. Conversely, in a bear market, traders are “short-biased,” and going long can be harmful1.

While some traders have embraced what could be a Crypto Spring, others are still apprehensive and traumatized by the bear market. “It’s tough for traders. We’re human beings, we’re emotional,” says Christopher Inks, who heads the trading group Texas West Capital. Inks notes that for many traders who were so accustomed to the sluggish price action of 2022, “there’s a recency bias, and it can be hard to get the idea that the bottom is in.” Inks, like Zduńczyk, is a proponent of a new bull market, as “the fact is that we’ve been rallying for just about a year now” 2.