Original Author: TechFlow
Retweet, Luke, Mars Finance
After being absent from the bull market feast for a long time, the NFT sector has recently awakened. First, Magic Eden opened airdrop share queries yesterday, and today the leading NFT in the ETH ecosystem, Pudgy Penguins, also tweeted to announce its token launch plan for this year.
Although the specific date and allocation details have not yet been announced, the general token allocation ratio has been released, with the largest share (25.9%) allocated to the Pudgy community; at the same time, 24.12% is allocated to other communities, and even 0.35% is reserved for $FTT Holders.
According to community user @BTCThinker88's analysis, the airdrop scale of the $PENGU token is still considerable, with Pudgy Penguins holders expected to receive between $31,000 to $61,000 (7.9 ETH-15.8 ETH) each. If Abstract Chain also provides token allocations for the penguin community, this could become one of the largest airdrop events in 2024 following HYPE.
Indeed, the biggest benefit for projects is the positive news that can stimulate prices. With the announcement of the token launch, the floor prices of the Pudgy Penguins and Lil Pudgys NFTs rose in response: the Pudgy Penguins floor price is currently reported at 18.55 ETH (approximately $72,600), while Lil Pudgys' floor price is reported at 1.91 ETH (approximately $7,500), with daily increases nearing 20% and transaction volume increasing by 3-5 times.
Is the NFT market warming up, and can projects seize the trend to emerge?
As the overall market continues to rise, excess funds have also flowed into the NFT ecosystem. According to data from Dune user @hildobby, total NFT sales have started to warm up, with daily transaction volumes approaching $40 million and weekly transaction volumes exceeding $100 million.
Blue-chip NFTs are also experiencing impressive growth. According to OKX data, the floor prices and transaction volumes of blue-chip NFTs on the ETH mainnet have shown good increases over the past 30 days.
Some projects cease operations, while others find endless opportunities from airdrops.
In the bear market of the past two years, the NFT sector can be said to be a double bear compared to altcoins. The blue-chip NFTs that shone in 2021, like Bored Ape Yacht Club and Azuki, faced a series of major changes such as community FUD and large holders selling off during the bear market, with prices plummeting to a freezing point. The market's fascination with NFTs has gradually diminished, and the use case for NFTs has become more like a 'future airdrop voucher' or simply a commemorative token, with the vast majority of NFTs losing their utility as investment/speculative assets. Even some major projects are no exception; on December 3, the once-popular NFT brand RTFKT, which was even acquired by Nike, announced it would gradually cease operations as the crypto bull market approached, which is quite lamentable.
Aside from sporadic project launches, only a few blue-chip projects remain relatively hot, and the polarization between NFT projects is becoming increasingly severe: some blue-chip NFTs, even in a bear market, perform well. Strong community projects like Milady, Pudgy Penguins, and Madlads have received large airdrops from various popular projects like Ethena ($ENA), Aethir ($ATH), Zksync ($ZK), and Wormhole ($W) this year, with the total value of airdrops significantly exceeding the project's floor price.
Staying close to the market is clearly a viable path.
From the existing allocation plan, the Pudgy Penguins community clearly understands the market, and the 'customer acquisition' skills of established top NFTs are indeed impressive. Not only does the community's share dominate the allocation, but it is also generous in distributing to other communities. This internal and external allocation plan accounts for half of the total token amount.
In addition to providing significant allocations to the community, Pudgy Penguins, which originated on the ETH mainnet, has specifically chosen to launch its token on the currently hottest Solana network. Indeed, whether in terms of liquidity or player sentiment, choosing the meme-crazy Solana as the launchpad for Pudgy Penguins, as a cartoon NFT project, is undoubtedly a better choice for the project's price initiation.
How are other old NFTs doing?
Bored Ape Yacht Club
Current Floor Price: 20.7888 ETH
Historical Highest Average Transaction Price: 340 ETH
90-Day Average Price: 14.21 ETH
90-Day Transaction Volume: 20409 ETH
As one of the most prominent NFTs, the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) has been criticized for not keeping up with the times during the bear market. Indeed, since the exorbitant transactions and launches in 21 and 22 years, the Bored Ape series has not seen further substantial innovations. In October this year, Apechain announced that it would start its own Meme Pump, and the short-term trading volume of BAYC increased accordingly. However, as the hype faded, it dropped again until the recent collective market recovery, when trading performance gradually improved.
Milady Maker
Current Floor Price: 6.53 ETH
Historical Highest Average Transaction Price: 7.11 ETH
90-Day Average Price: 4.63 ETH
90-Day Transaction Volume: 10756 ETH
Relatively low-profile but with a strong community, Milady has recently maintained an upward trend, with the average floor price already exceeding the time when Musk launched the Milady-themed meme in May last year. Additionally, with the price of ETH nearing $4000, in terms of USD valuation, Milady's price has more than doubled compared to its previous peak.
Azuki
Current Floor Price: 6.1 ETH
Historical Highest Average Transaction Price: 40.77 ETH
90-Day Average Price: 5.222 ETH
90-Day Transaction Volume: 8026 ETH
The current floor price of Azuki is 6.1 ETH, which is still a distance from the average price of 16 ETH during the community FUD and cliff-like drop in June 23. Clearly, the current price cannot be considered a 'recovery'; it is more of an increase along with the overall market warming.
Mad Lads — Solana
Current Floor Price: 43.5 SOL
Historical Highest Average Transaction Price: 173.58 SOL
90-Day Average Price: 45.47 SOL
90-Day Transaction Volume: 59345 SOL
As a representative project of Solana, Mad Lads has also enjoyed various airdrop benefits, with projects like Wormhole and Backpack allocating a significant portion of airdrop shares to the Mad Lads community. Perhaps affected by the overall downturn in the Solana ecosystem NFTs, Mad Lads' price has been declining since its peak in March, but recently the market has improved, and prices have rebounded.
Summary
Choosing to announce the token launch on the Solana chain, which has the best liquidity, during a time when ETH breaks new highs and market sentiment is positive, Pudgy Penguins' token launch plan is strategically successful, and the price response indicates that the market is evidently supportive of this action.
From the price trend of $APE over the past few years, it can be seen that launching a token is not a universal remedy for NFT projects. To avoid the token launch becoming the last dance for project teams to realize value, it is necessary to look at the project team's specific 'operations' regarding price and token use cases. However, one thing is certain: not only for NFT projects but for all old projects looking to revive, grasping trends and staying close to the market should be the main theme to follow in this bull market. For market participants, regardless of how grandly a project claims, maintaining observation and making calm and fully informed investment decisions is the most important way to survive in a bull market.
