Daily Share
In the recent market, Bitcoin has been in adjustment. We have mentioned many times that this adjustment is just an adjustment of the rising relay, and it will continue to break through 100,000 in the future. Bitcoin has broken through 100,000 today, and the current highest is around 104,000. The direct rise here is faster than I expected. From a structural point of view, the callback some time ago cannot constitute a 4h callback, so the current rise should be divided into a continuation of the 4h level rise. The same is true for Ethereum, which is still an extension of the 4h level rise.
Here comes a question. If Bitcoin is an extension of the previous 4h level rise, then when will the real 4h correction come? How much higher can Bitcoin go before it pulls back? If it pulls back next, will it definitely plummet to 85,000 or lower? Will it rise all the way to 120,000?
I can't answer these questions. The market trend is much more complicated than originally expected. The only thing we can consider now is that the market as a whole is in a staged climax period. During the high-level fluctuation of Bitcoin, altcoins have risen and fallen one after another. The mainstream coins and old altcoins have almost all pulled up. The lows are basically 3 times the bottom. Ethereum started from around 3100. We have always emphasized that Ethereum's rebound is coming, and it will soon reach 4000.
Considering the current market level, the altcoin market needs a certain period of adjustment, or a wash-out. So at the current stage, I think it is necessary to do some subtraction, reduce positions in some currencies, and protect current profits. Release some funds. If a callback occurs, you can add positions again at a low level.
The price of Bitcoin has exceeded 100,000. Have you really made money? In the real market, many retail investors may have terrible operations. Some are trapped in short orders below 80,000 and are living a miserable life; some are afraid to buy spot after missing out. Some are selling at high prices but have not made any money; some are latecomers and have a lot of spot orders bought at high prices but have not made much profit; and some are shorting as the market keeps rising.
In fact, when the market changes from fluctuation to trend, most people do not adjust their thinking and cannot keep up with the rhythm of the main force. In the first half of this year, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level, which can easily lead people into a misunderstanding, that is, they cannot have a pattern, and once they have a pattern, they will go on a roller coaster. When Bitcoin fluctuated and broke through 70,000, the actual upward trend came, but many people's thinking was still at the stage of the first half of the year, and they would sell it as soon as it rose a little. They always thought that the market was going to fall sharply, so they could not keep up with the rhythm.
This is what leads to the current market's continuous pull-up. You are afraid of heights, right? I will push it up desperately. You are afraid of repeating the mistakes of the first half of the year, right? Then I will push it up until you are convinced. When everyone is used to the rhythm of continuous pull-up, the market is likely to fall and clean up, so that those who chased high positions will sell at a loss.
This is my personal understanding of the market, so I think it is necessary to reduce positions here and pocket some of the profits.
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.
1H：
At the 1h level, from a structural point of view, the callback in the past few days is actually a process of central oscillation, and the short-term has not been able to successfully make a 4h level callback. At present, the 1h level rebound has directly set a new high again, which is a continuation of the 4h level rise. Therefore, there is still an expectation of a 4h callback in the future. It should be noted that after the big cake breaks through 100,000, there is a certain probability that the market will fall again. This is what we need to prevent. If it is particularly strong, pay attention to whether it will reach 110,000 tomorrow.
15M：
At the 15-minute level, it currently needs at least another 15-minute rise to get above 104,000. If it rises again, pay attention to the strength of the rise. We will first look at the 105,000 to 110,000 range.
ETH
The same is true for 1h. This is also an extension of the 4h level rise. Last night I was worried about the divergence of the trend between Ethereum and Bitcoin. Now it seems that I was overthinking. Bitcoin and Ethereum currently have the same structure. They are both extending the 4h level rise. Among them, the trend of Ethereum is more sturdy. Currently, starting from 2357, it is still running the first 4h level rise in the daily rise. This 4h rise directly rushed to around 4000. Therefore, the daily rise of Ethereum requires at least a 4h pullback and a 4h level rise.
Therefore, based on the structural progress of the market, 5,000 will definitely be broken in the future, and 7,000~8,000 is still very likely to be reached in the first half of next year.
In the short term, the 4h rise will focus on whether it can reach around 4100 and 4200. Currently, Ethereum has followed an upward trend of 2 centers, and now it is in the second 1h-level center departure segment of the rise. As long as this rise does not break through 4250, a divergence will occur, thus ending the 4h-level rise and forming a 4h correction.
At the 15-minute level, this is the third 15-minute level increase. Let’s see how strong the increase is.
Trend Direction
Weekly level: The direction is upward, and a new weekly level rise is currently underway, with the overall target above 150,000
Daily level: The direction is upward, the daily level rise is expected to reach around 120,000
4-hour level: The direction is upward. It is currently an extension of the previous 4h level rise. The 4h callback failed to come out successfully, but there is a probability that it will end as soon as possible.
1-hour level: The direction is upward. Currently, a 1h-level rebound is running. Pay attention to the 105,000-110,000 range above.
15-minute level: The direction is upward, and the short-term trend should continue to rise. Let's see the upward momentum.
