Long-term narrative: Institutions continue to buy BTC, $100,000 is just the beginning.
According to options market data, cryptocurrency derivatives traders appear overwhelmingly bullish, betting that Bitcoin has greater room for rebound.
Short-term possibility: Amidst surging prices, beware of pullbacks.
At the important juncture of BTC breaking through $100,000, while most investors may be reluctant to face this issue, they must remain vigilant about potential pullback risks amidst the excitement. Overall, there are three main factors currently facing the market that could lead to a pullback.
Pullback inducement one: The Fear and Greed Index remains at a high level.
The first factor is the current public sentiment frenzy, with the Fear and Greed Index remaining high.
Data shows that today's Fear and Greed Index is at 84, still rated as extreme greed, and the previous week's rating was also extreme greed. As the saying goes, 'Buy when there is no one asking, sell when the crowd is loud.' From the current sentiment data, while it is impossible to determine where the short-term BTC peak lies, there is always a risk of pullback.
Witnessing history: Bitcoin breaks $100,000 for the first time, where does it go next?
The threshold for the Fear Index is 0-100, including indicators: Volatility (25%) + Market Trading Volume (25%) + Social Media Popularity (15%) + Market Surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's proportion in the overall market (10%) + Google Trends Analysis (10%).
Pullback inducement two: There is a window period for the realization of crypto policies.
The second factor is that there is a window period for the realization of Trump's policies, and the increase in uncertainty may lead institutions to take profits and exit.
Since Trump's inauguration is set for January 20 next year, about a month and a half from now, and crypto-related policies are not a priority after he officially takes office. Investment bank TD Cowen believes that the regulatory environment will change as expected, but also emphasizes that 'the Trump team's focus is on extending tax cuts and addressing tariff and trade issues; cryptocurrency will not be their top priority,' so the strength and timing of policy implementation are still up for debate. Additionally, analysts note that 'Trump has been a skeptic of cryptocurrencies, but after digital asset companies invested heavily to promote their interests during the campaign, he changed his stance; there are still questions about the feasibility of his promises and the timeline for implementation.'
In summary, there is still nearly a two-month window before Trump officially takes office. If a large amount of capital chooses to take profits and exit as BTC breaks through $100,000, avoiding risks and waiting to see Trump's initial stance on the crypto industry before making a decision, this could be a negative factor for BTC's price in the short term, potentially leading to a significant pullback.
Pullback inducement three: Continuously rising leverage.
The third factor is the continued rise in market leverage, which has objectively laid the groundwork for significant market fluctuations.
Data shows that the total open positions for Bitcoin futures contracts across the entire network have reached 626,100 BTC (approximately $6.3 billion), continuously setting historical highs; the nominal value of open positions for BTC options across the network is $36.8 billion, approaching historical highs.
Witnessing history: Bitcoin breaks $100,000 for the first time, where does it go next?
Looking back at past trends, leverage is both a catalyst for bull markets and a trigger point for extreme market conditions. While predictions about market trends should not be made hastily, risk management is always a key aspect that cannot be ignored.
