The image above simulates the price volatility of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) through various growth and downtrend cycles. Based on historical data and moving averages (MA), several important observations can be made:
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1. Strong Growth Cycle:
• Bitcoin has undergone strong growth phases, as shown by the red arrows, usually after accumulation periods or price bottoms.
• These phases often occur after the market hits a deep support level or triggering events.
2. Downtrend Cycle:
• After the price peak (the area marked by the red circle), Bitcoin tends to enter a strong correction phase, often lasting several months to a few years.
• The model in the image predicts that the next peak will form before BTC enters a strong downtrend, expected to bottom around June 2025, with a price range of $30,000 - $40,000.
3. Technical data support:
• The MA 7, MA 25, and MA 99 in the weekly frame help identify long-term trends. When the price is below MA 25, the market tends to correct deeper.
• Trading volume decreases during the correction phase, indicating a cooling off from investors.
4. Potential scenario for 2025:
• If the cycle repeats like in 2022, BTC may enter an accumulation zone at a low support level in the second half of 2025.
• This could be an opportunity for long-term investors to prepare for the next growth cycle in the following years.
Note: This is just a predictive analysis based on historical data and does not guarantee actual results. Investors should consider risks and monitor other market factors.
