The "Fear and Greed" effect, on Binance there is a feature that indicates the market's greed and fear index. So have you ever explored what greed and fear are? Today I was asked by a new participant in the market, so I wrote this article.
Let's start with the concept, what is greed? and what is fear? How does its behavior occur? What are its impacts?
* Greed
- This is an emotional state that arises when investors see profits or opportunities that could yield profits, leading them to want to invest in the project.
- Common behaviors/expressions:
+ Buy in bulk, causing them to increase in price very quickly within a short period.
+ Overlook potential risks, invest in hot new projects without thorough investigation.
+ Not willing to take profits due to the desire and expectation that prices may continue to rise.
- What is its impact? When greed arises, through some of the behaviors above, it can cause its value to rise too high compared to its actual value, leading to a "market bubble".
* Fear
- This psychological emotion occurs when a project or something they are investing in is in a significant decline or there is concern that they will lose part or all of their investment capital.
- Common behaviors/expressions:
+ Liquidate assets to protect what remains, even if they do not know whether it is a price correction or not.
+ Avoid/fear investing in new projects due to risk aversion, leading to missed opportunities.
- Impact: Contrary to greed, the value of those things will drop to a level too low compared to their actual value.
Coming to the cycle of Fear and Greed
- Greed phase: Investors are optimistic, prices rise, and everyone rushes to buy.
- Peak phase: Prices reach their highest levels due to greed pushing them up, and often there is no fundamental support left.
- Fear phase: Prices drop sharply, investors panic sell, the market falls into chaos.
- Bottom phase: Prices have fallen excessively, opening up opportunities for prudent investors to return to the market.
* These are the phases for Fear and Greed to arise.
Some real examples:
- Greed: During the tech bubble of the late 1990s, investors rushed to pour money into tech stocks, causing market values to soar far beyond their actual values. When the bubble burst, the market collapsed and many investors suffered heavy losses.
- Fear: During the financial crisis of 2008, investors dumped stocks out of fear of losing money, causing stock prices to plummet severely, even though many companies still had solid business foundations.
Coming to the Fear and Greed index, this index will be calculated from 0->100, 0-50 is fear, 50-100 is greed with 50 being the balance level.
Ways to remedy
* To minimize the impact of the "Fear and Greed" effect, investors should:
- Plan specific investments: Set clear goals, expected profit levels, and stop-loss thresholds.
- Maintain discipline: Do not let emotions dominate, adhere to the established strategy.
- Objectively assess the market: Based on data and analysis, do not follow the crowd.
- Focus on the long term: Instead of reacting to short-term fluctuations, concentrate on long-term investment goals.