Original title: Polymarket Retains Loyal User Base a Month After Election, Data Shows
Original author: Sam Reynolds
Original source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/02/polymarket-retains-loyal-user-base-a-month-after-election-data-shows
Compiled by: Tom, Mars Finance
Highlight: A former NFL wide receiver publicly apologizes for insulting Shayne Coplan under Kalshi's direction; traders did not foresee Hunter Biden's pardon.
Polymarket still maintains a loyal user base after the US election
Antonio Brown apologizes for insulting Polymarket's Shayne Coplan
Hunter Biden's pardon earned a bettor $220,000
During the hot summer, Polymarket's election betting surged due to correct speculation that the Democrats would replace Joe Biden with Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate. As fall approached, trading volume continued to grow. However, there was always doubt about whether the platform's traders would remain active after the ballots were cast.
On election day, the research department of gaming and venture capital giant Animoca released a report making bold predictions: Polymarket has nothing to worry about. According to the report, Polymarket has a large base of non-election-related bettors that can help it weather the storm.
Naturally, the number of trades will decrease after the election—after all, political showdowns like Donald Trump are hard to match—but it will not turn into a 'ghost town.' Animoca pointed out that three-quarters of users on Polymarket trade contracts unrelated to the election.
A month later, this analysis has been validated.
Key data point: Polymarket's open contracts
Open contracts, which reflect the total value of all active positions on Polymarket, indicate the platform's liquidity, user activity, and overall market participation.
According to data from the Dune Analytics dashboard, while open contracts reached a high of about $475 million on election day and saw a significant drop in the days following the election, open contracts began to recover in the past week.
Data shows that open contracts fell to a low of $93.91 million on November 12, then gradually rebounded, reaching $104 million on November 15 and further growing to $115.25 million by November 30. This is not bad for Polymarket, as it is at the same level as mid-September, during the height of election fervor.
Similarly, while daily trading volume has significantly decreased from its post-election peak of $367 million, it has stabilized between $80 million and $100 million, which is still higher than the levels in September.
Another key metric: number of active wallets
The number of active wallets reflects the number of active traders on the platform.
In the past week, this metric has remained roughly between 30,000 and 35,000, which is not far off from the average level of 39,100 active wallets in the week before the election.
Does Polymarket rely on a few 'whales' to drive trading volume? Not at all.
Data shows that about 60% of the betting amounts are below $100, and only 5.8% of the betting amounts range between $1,000 and $5,000.
Polymarket is clearly growing steadily, but it still faces some challenges. It needs to resolve its legal issues, which are likely to be resolved with Trump's election and the implementation of cryptocurrency-friendly financial regulation.
The influencer's confession
An influencer on social media who participated in the Kalshi manipulation publicly apologized for insulting Coplan, stating that he did not do enough research before posting.
"I posted this information while doing other business with Kalshi and had no idea what I was posting. I later realized that I had posted inappropriate content. I sincerely apologize." - Antonio Brown wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on November 30.
Previously, the influencer account Clown World, which often posted content related to Kalshi, deleted comments comparing Coplan and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour had previously declined to comment publicly on this matter.
The market failed to foresee Biden's pardon
President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, received a pardon on Sunday, a move that surprised many—including traders on Polymarket.
According to the White House statement, the pardon covers all offenses committed between January 1, 2014, and December 1 of this year, including Hunter's tax and gun charges, as well as other undiscovered crimes.
Before the announcement of the pardon, the trading price for contracts representing the 'Yes' side was about 28 to 30 cents, indicating that the market believed the probability of a pardon was 28% to 30%. However, after the White House confirmed the execution of the pardon, the prices of these contracts surged to 100%, meaning each contract would pay 1 USDC.
The market was previously skeptical about the possibility of a pardon, as President Biden had repeatedly promised not to pardon his son.
In June of this year, Biden promised to respect the jury's decision in the gun charge case and would not pardon his son. At that time, the market believed the probability of a pardon was only 12%.
According to Polymarket Analytics data, the user with the most holdings on the 'Yes' side, a trader named 'PollsR4Dummies', gained a return of $223,500 by betting $87,700.
Additionally, this market skeptic also held two long-odds 'Yes' contracts, betting that Fox News host Pete Hegseth would be confirmed as Secretary of Defense (the current market probability is 32%, due to recent sexual assault allegations), and that the Federal Reserve would cut rates three times in 2024 (the market gives a 29% probability).
