Based on the provided charts, I will analyze BTC by each timeframe and present scenarios:
OVERALL ANALYSIS:
- Long-term trend (W1): Strong uptrend
- Medium-term trend (D1): Sideways accumulation
- Short-term trend (H4-H1): Downward correction
INDICATOR ANALYSIS:
1. MA:
- MA20 & MA50 are narrowing
- Price is testing MA50 as dynamic support
- Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating reduced volatility
2. RSI:
- RSI(14) = 39.01 indicates a short-term oversold area
- No clear divergence yet
3. MACD:
- MACD Histogram is negative and decreasing
- No reversal signal yet
4. Volume:
- Average volume, no spikes yet
- Mainly selling volume
SCENARIOS:
1. Positive scenario (35% probability):
- Price holds above MA50 (~94,500)
- Recovery testing 96,500-97,000
- Target: 98,000-100,000
- Stop loss: 93,000
Recommendation:
- Long spot from 94,500
- R:R = 1:2
- Size 30% of capital
2. Neutral scenario (45% probability):
- Sideways in the range of 94,000-96,000
- Accumulate for another 1-2 weeks
Recommendation:
- Grid bot within the range of 94,000-96,000
- Grid size 200-300 USD
- Total number of orders: 10-15 orders
- Leverage: 2x
- Stop loss: 93,000
3. Negative scenario (20% probability):
- Break below 94,000
- Test the area of 90,000-92,000
- Could drop to 88,000 if panic occurs
Recommendation:
- Short Future at 94,000
- Target: 90,000
- Stop loss: 96,000
- Size 20% of capital
- Leverage: 2x
OVERALL RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. In the short term:
- Should not long aggressively
- Can trade gridbot within the range
- Wait for clearer reversal signals
2. Medium and long term:
- Hold existing spots
- DCA around the area of 94,000-95,000
- Do not use high leverage
POINTS TO NOTE:
1. Volatility is gradually decreasing
2. Need to monitor volume spikes
3. The area of 94,000 is very important
4. Oversold RSI may create a recovery
5. No capitulation signal yet
