Bitcoin has been consolidating below $100,000 for about ten days now, gradually forming a high-level triangular consolidation structure. The following are two of the most likely consolidation routes predicted.
If it's the first scenario, then the consolidation period is almost over, and the market is about to break through and choose a direction.
If it's the second scenario, continue to switch to a consolidation structure, with $91,500 as support, and then start moving upward.
Of course, there are also third, fourth, and other possibilities, but the future oscillation state needs to be gradually deduced over time, with a bottom line of $86,000 support!
Once the price breaks below this support, I won't understand it anymore. At least the current upward trend is maintaining well. While Bitcoin is in a high consolidation forming a fluctuation structure to exchange time for space, Ethereum is stabilizing the momentum, and strong altcoins are pulling up and creating waves. This state represents a bull market situation.
In a typical bull market process, profits within the market will definitely attract off-exchange liquidity. This round of off-exchange funds has mostly gone into Bitcoin and Meme, while last year it was mainly inscriptions.
Bitcoin's rise is largely due to capital inflow from ETFs, most of which comes from off-exchange institutional funds, but these funds generally do not trust any other coins and only buy Bitcoin, not other coins.
MEME involves many small and large communities that bring some off-exchange funds into the cryptocurrency circle through offline and online dissemination. Initially, most of them will not buy other coins.
However, this is actually detrimental to the entire crypto market's VC coins, which is why VC coins have been languishing. A healthy market requires other off-exchange liquidity to enter or Bitcoin funds from within the market, with meme turning towards the traditional market of VC coins.
The trend of altcoins
Against the backdrop of Bitcoin's consolidation, altcoin trends seem to be quietly gaining momentum. The valuation ceiling of the altcoin market has been opened, especially for established altcoins like XRP, whose market cap has surpassed SOL to rise to third place, becoming a market focus. This change has led many to start paying attention to the potential of altcoins, particularly those with smaller market caps but high potential.
For example, some old projects that have been forgotten by the market recently, such as EOS, FIL, Theta, and LTC, have all welcomed strong rebounds. Even for these large-cap projects, the rebound from the bottom can reach up to four times, while smaller-cap altcoins may see tenfold or even higher increases.
As these old projects gradually regain vitality, more altcoin tracks are expected to explode. Investors can pay attention to the following important tracks and projects:
Meme track: Pepe, Doge, Shiba, Pnut, Chillguy, etc.;
DeFi track: UNI, AAVE, LINK, CRV, ENS, etc.;
Public chain track: SOL, Sui, ALGO, etc.
Regarding how to take profits and escape the peak with altcoins:
First, look at expectations and market capitalization. For example, if you expect a new $10 billion market cap in the meme track this year, then the coins you bet on should not be frequently traded or monitored. Hold onto them, and see if your coin has the potential during the overall market frenzy. If it truly doesn't, don't hold on; it indicates a misjudgment, so just let it go. Misjudgment is a norm, learn to accept it.
Two, observe the patterns and structures. For some older second-tier coins, if they are neither hot tracks nor have new hype topics, then their surges are likely to either follow the big market or see the main funds accumulate at the bottom and then release chips after pulling up. At this time, one needs to sell quickly and remove them from the watchlist based on their patterns and structures.
Three, look at the track, observe the main and secondary lines. The main storyline coins will have several waves of surges and then reach a peak; the secondary storylines often have a single flow.
Four, look at the market. Bitcoin is the direction of the cryptocurrency circle, and the US stock market is the leader of the big pie, and their trends are determined by the overall economic environment and macro policies. In a bull market, it is essential to remain sensitive to potential turning points.
In the new month, we continue to lay out strategies, and there are several points everyone needs to pay attention to:
1. The exchange rate of ETH has risen too steeply; sideways movement is preferable as it is conducive to further gains. Watch for support at 0.373, while 3730 is also a strong resistance level, with initial support around 3570.
2. Altcoins have already shown daily and weekly rebounds with Ethereum leading the way, and the possibility of a slight market adjustment has increased.
3. On the 5th of this month, there is a non-farm payroll report, on the 11th a CPI report, and at the end of the month, there is Christmas, which may cause significant market fluctuations.
To make money in a bull market, it first requires a good ecosystem. One must not rush; rushing leads to mistakes, and mistakes disrupt rhythm, leading to losses. A lost mindset will perpetuate losses, creating a cycle. Be patient, hold steadily; slow is fast. You cannot catch every soaring coin; you are not a god.
