Xiao Yihang: On 12.3, Bitcoin experienced back-and-forth washing of positions, and today, short above 96,000!
Flowing with the river, you will surely find the ocean. Following the market trend, you can definitely catch profits. I always feel that time is not enough, passing too quickly, and there are still too many things I haven't had time to prepare for. When I was young, I wanted to become anyone but myself, but after reaching my thirties, I increasingly just want to be myself. I like fireworks but never watch them bloom; I love freedom but never dare to be slack.
Yesterday morning, Bitcoin opened and first rebounded upwards to test 98,000, which means it rebounded more than 2,000 U from the low of 95,700 on Saturday. The reason for this is Trump's promotion on Saturday, which was aimed at the economy and not Bitcoin. However, it's like looking far away at a power line; as long as the electricity flows, it can shock people. The US dollar opened high yesterday morning, and then Bitcoin dropped all the way from around 98,000 to below 95,000!
However, there was no Black Monday, and the market has been repeatedly washing positions. In the morning, it dropped from 98,200 to 94,800, then rose from 94,800 to 97,400 in the evening, and at midnight fell again from 87,400 to 94,400. It seems that both bulls and bears have not chosen a direction recently and are waiting for a stronger fundamental impact.
For example, the non-farm employment data on Friday, which is revealed on the Friday evening of the first week of each month, will be announced at 21:30 on Friday. Before the non-farm data, there is a high possibility of Bitcoin's price action washing positions repeatedly. After last month's explosive surge, the range is now constantly compressing between 98,000 and 92,000 USD.
Yesterday, after a drop in the morning, it rebounded upwards in the evening, forming pressure in the 96,500 - 97,000 area. Since Bitcoin adjusted from 99,600, it has repeatedly rebounded above 98,000 and then plummeted. Therefore, as I mentioned today, the daily direction suggests that the daily chart has already formed a top, and the overall focus for December should be on correction. The larger structure has not ended its adjustment, or we might say that the adjustment has just begun.
In terms of short-term trades, there is support at the lower points of 94,200 and 93,300, as well as the recent support at 94,800. The low points are constantly moving up, forming an angular relationship between highs and lows. As the space for fluctuations continues to shrink, the time for a significant single direction will approach the non-farm data or the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December.
Currently, Bitcoin is still fluctuating between 96,000 and 95,000. Those who did not close their shorts from 98,000 - 97,000 yesterday can still hold on. The short at 96,300 just made 1,000 points profit and has been closed for now, waiting to see the situation later tonight. Similarly, Ethereum's position at 3,670 has already been captured around 3,600. In a fluctuating market, both bulls and bears have opportunities; it's hard to say who is right or wrong, as long as the positions are not too far off, there will be profit potential!
Today, I suggest that in the European and American trading sessions, Bitcoin should defend above 97,000. When it rebounds above 96,000, one can short at higher levels. Below, we should first look at 94,500 - 94,000. Yesterday, I said it could only go down if it broke below 94,800, so today’s support has shifted down to 94,000. We can only continue down if it fails to hold 94,000. However, in a fluctuating market, don’t look too far; today, let’s look at the 94,000 - 93,000 area for now.