Recently, there have been increasing reports in the market about AltSeason. $ETH has started to show unusual movements, signs of weakened BTC market dominance, and altcoins are gradually strengthening. But the question is, is this a real altcoin season, or just another market false breakout?
Next, I will analyze the current market changes through key data and charts and share my views.
1. BTC dominance weakening: Is this a signal for the rise of altcoins?
In the past 8 months, BTC dominance has significantly weakened for the first time.
Although Bitcoin prices remain above $90K, more new liquidity in the market is flowing towards altcoins rather than BTC. This may indicate that market sentiment is gradually shifting.
Since the market low in November 2023, we have observed the following trends:
- BTC rises, altcoins slightly rise, BTC dominance increases.
- BTC rises, altcoins significantly rise, BTC dominance decreases.
- BTC drops, altcoins fall sharply, BTC dominance increases.
The current situation seems to be leaning towards the second trend, but whether it will trigger a real AltSeason still needs further observation.
2. Institutional participation boosts altcoin potential.
Institutions globally are gradually entering the altcoin space, here are some significant examples:
- The US SEC submitted the 'Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF', covering various mainstream altcoins like $ETH, $SOL, $XRP.
- The Swedish Spotlight securities market has launched the first Dogecoin ETP.
- VanEck, 21Shares, etc. submitted Solana ETF applications, and VanEck's SUI ETN management assets have exceeded $100 million.
- Wisdom Tree submitted an XRP ETF application.
These measures indicate that institutional investors are actively paying attention to the altcoin market, and 2025 is likely to be a year when altcoins shine.
3. Liquidity analysis: Is there sufficient funding to support the altcoin market?
Someone asked: Does the altcoin market need $50B-$100B in liquidity support, is the funding sufficient? The answer is yes.
Stablecoin growth data (1 year):
- USDT: $44B (+49.4%)
- USDC: $15B (+61.4%)
- USDe: $4.1B (new issuance)
- FDUSD: $1.2B (+130%)
Although most of the current liquidity is flowing towards BTC, as altcoin performance improves, funds will gradually shift to altcoins. Additionally, as the bull market advances, the minting pace of stablecoins will accelerate, injecting more liquidity into the market.
4. Timeline for the altcoin season.
I believe the current rise in altcoins is more like a 'bounce' rather than a true AltSeason. Most altcoins are still down 30%-50% from historical highs and are currently trying to catch up.
My prediction:
- The real altcoin season will begin in Q1 2025, likely following the FOMC meeting after the Fed announces the end of tightening policies.
- Now is a good time to accumulate altcoins, especially during corrections.
- I plan to actively invest before December and take partial profits in Q1 2025.
Investors need to prepare their investment plans while closely monitoring false breakouts in BTC dominance—this could be a buying opportunity for altcoins.
Conclusion:
AltSeason is an important cycle in the crypto market, but it is also full of volatility and uncertainty. By analyzing data and market trends, we can see that altcoins are gradually attracting more capital inflows, but a real explosion may still need to wait. Regardless of how the market changes, preparing in advance and formulating clear strategies is the best way to deal with market fluctuations.
