The journey of Bitcoin to the $100,000 price point will be shaped by the balance between demand from short-term holders (STH) and profit-taking activities from long-term holders (LTH), according to the latest report from Bitfinex Alpha.

Despite experiencing a significant correction of 8.64% last week, Bitcoin closed November at a record closing price of $96,506. This remarkable recovery occurred after the price dropped to $90,911 on November 26 – the largest correction since the sell-off before the election in October. Nevertheless, November still saw Bitcoin achieve an impressive growth of 37.3%, becoming the second-highest performing month of the year.

Growth momentum and signs of volatility

Bitcoin enters December with strong upward momentum, seen as a positive signal. A report from Bitfinex Alpha predicts that this trend could continue, especially in the context of Bitcoin's historical performance in halving years, which is often outstanding.

Statistics show that in halving years, the average price of Bitcoin increases by 38.86%. However, the report also warns that December may face stronger volatility, coinciding with the expiration of the largest options contracts of the year.

In addition, current supply and demand trends also suggest the possibility of a temporary market correction before reaching new price peaks.

Supply trend: The role of long-term holders

The medium-term outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, but concerns about short-term corrections persist. The report emphasizes the important role of long-term holders (LTH), who are continuously distributing Bitcoin to take advantage of increased demand from the market.

Since the peak supply of LTH in September, over 508,990 BTC has been distributed. Although this number is large, it is still significantly lower than the 934,000 BTC sold during the price surge to $73,666 in March. However, this remains a key factor influencing the short-term outlook.

If demand from short-term holders (STH) is not strong enough to absorb the supply from LTH, Bitcoin may face larger price volatility and deeper corrections before returning to an upward trend.

Currently, the supply from short-term holders is nearing the peak of the cycle, with over 3.25 million BTC in the hands of short-term investors. History shows that the late stage of a bull market often begins when STH supply surpasses previous peaks before halving.

Signal from the SOPR index

The SOPR index (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of LTH, which tracks profits when they sell Bitcoin, is currently at 2.6. In previous cycles, market peaks often occurred when SOPR exceeded 3 – a sign of strong profit-taking phase.

Currently, the level of 2.6 indicates that LTH are still selling but have not yet reached a distribution peak, leaving room for prices to continue rising if demand from STH remains high.

December Outlook: The Road to $100,000

The report states that if the market can absorb the supply from LTH, the $100,000 threshold will be within reach. December is often volatile, but the effect from November and the halving year could support prices to maintain a neutral to positive trend.

However, expected volatility at the end of the month – due to the expiration of large options contracts and profit-taking activities – could create short-term fluctuations.

Investors and traders are advised to closely monitor supply and demand trends in the coming weeks. If demand from short-term holders (STH) is strong enough to balance selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH), Bitcoin could quickly approach the $100,000 mark. However, before achieving that, the market will continue to witness strong fluctuations.


Source: https://tapchibitcoin.io/bitcoin-den-100k-phu-thuoc-vao-holder-ngan-han.html