Polymarket has rapidly risen due to the election frenzy and the trading appeal of non-political events, but its future development still depends on regulatory compliance and market diversification.
Written by: @mattsolomon
Translation: Plain Language Blockchain
How Polymarket turned election predictions into a billion-dollar bet? @animocaresearch's latest report provides some analysis, summarized below.
1. What is Polymarket?
@Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can trade on the outcomes of future events.
Unlike traditional betting, Polymarket allows participants to buy and sell shares on whether an event will occur, with the price of 'YES' shares reflecting the market consensus on the probability of that event happening.
Prediction Mechanism: Trades are conducted peer-to-peer, with real-time pricing based on user orders.
Token Usage: Trades use USDC, and ERC-1155 tokens represent predictions.
2. Polymarket’s popularity and influence have rapidly risen
Since its founding in 2020, Polymarket has experienced explosive growth, particularly during the U.S. election cycle:
User Interaction: In October 2024 alone, over 300,000 new users joined.
Public Attention: Featured in major media such as The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, with mentions by figures like Trump.
Traffic: Traffic reached 35 million visits in October, approaching top betting sites.
Trading Volume Insights Polymarket’s trading volume surge: • Trading volume skyrocketed: from $40 million in April 2024 to $2.5 billion in October. • Open interest: increased from $20 million to $400 million, comparable to mainstream decentralized trading platforms (DEX) like SushiSwap. • Event focus: Although the election market dominates, non-election events like sports also attract significant trading activity.
3. The Founder’s Story
Polymarket’s founder Shayne Coplan has a captivating story:
Early Start: Started mining Bitcoin at age 15 in New York, invested in Ethereum at age 16.
Entrepreneurial Journey: Dropped out of New York University in 2017 to focus on Web3 projects and founded Polymarket in 2020.
Leadership: Led the company through regulatory challenges and approached a billion-dollar valuation with recent funding.
4. Is Polymarket a fleeting electoral phenomenon or will it exist long-term?
Although its growth is closely tied to the U.S. elections:
Beyond Elections: A large number of users participating in trading non-political events shows its broader appeal.
Regulatory Compliance: Successfully addressing regulatory challenges may mean continued operations.
Community and Media: It has integrated into media consumption habits, indicating a potential for long-term existence.
