The ceasefire agreement mediated by the United States and France between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon just came into effect on the 27th, but this week there have been reports of exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, putting the ceasefire agreement on the brink of collapse and potentially rekindling market demand for safe-haven assets. (Background: Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement! Gold and Bitcoin both fell, is the safe-haven market over?) (Supplementary background: Hezbollah launched hundreds of "heavy rockets" in retaliation for Israeli airstrikes, causing gold to surge to $2,721) The ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Shiite militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon officially came into effect on the 27th, but this week both sides have accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. The ceasefire agreement, mediated by the US and France, seems to be on the verge of collapse, and if fighting reignites, it could raise market demand for safe havens. According to reports from AFP and Al Jazeera, Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon today (3rd), resulting in at least 11 deaths, seriously threatening the ceasefire agreement. Israel claims the attack was launched to prevent threats after detecting Hezbollah portable rocket launchers possibly involved in military activities in the area. On the same day, Hezbollah fired two shells at an Israeli military outpost in the border area controlled by Israel, claiming this was a warning against Israel's repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Hezbollah's attack did not cause casualties but severely violated the ceasefire agreement, emphasizing Israel's determination to maintain the ceasefire agreement while responding to any violations by Hezbollah. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is fragile and on the brink of collapse. Israel and Lebanon only reached a ceasefire agreement last week, which stipulated that Israeli troops would gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days and transfer border control to the Lebanese government forces to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding military strength in the area. Hezbollah would also withdraw from southern Lebanon to the north of the Litani River, with Hezbollah's new leader Naim Qassem promising on the 30th to cooperate closely with the Lebanese military in implementing the terms of the ceasefire agreement. However, just a few days after the agreement came into effect, both sides began exchanging fire. Nabih Berri, the Lebanese Parliament Speaker responsible for mediation, accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement on as many as 54 counts, including demolishing houses in border villages, sending reconnaissance drones to continuously fly over the airspace, and causing casualties in airstrikes. He called for urgent intervention from the US and France regarding Israel. This has raised concerns about whether the seemingly fragile ceasefire agreement will collapse. However, Axios reported that both Israel and Lebanon indicated to the White House on Monday that despite the recent border clashes, they remain committed to the ceasefire agreement and hope to maintain it. Further reading: Israel and Hezbollah reach a ceasefire agreement! Gold and Bitcoin both fell, is the safe-haven market over? Trump's tariff war threats strengthen the dollar, weakening gold. Last week, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon led to a cooling of safe-haven demand, causing prices of gold and Bitcoin to weaken, but concerns about the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war continue to support demand for safe-haven assets like gold, with gold prices remaining above $2,600. Reuters reported that spot gold fell on Monday, ending four consecutive days of gains. Market analysis attributed this to Trump’s remarks that BRICS countries attempting to free themselves from the dollar would face “100% tariffs,” leading to a significant strengthening of the dollar and putting pressure on gold prices. Last week, Trump also threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, raising concerns about a potential global trade war. Furthermore, the long-term inflation caused by Trump’s leadership and the minutes from the Fed's November FOMC meeting indicated that officials tend to adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, raising concerns that US interest rates will remain high for an extended period, further unsettling the metals market. These adverse factors have resulted in a 3% decline in gold prices in November, marking the largest monthly drop since September 2023. BMI analysts stated in a report: “We note that gold faces strong downside risks in 2025 and expect significant volatility in gold, as we may see the Fed take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, which is unfavorable for gold.” Source: TradingView. The Middle East conflict again raises safe-haven demand. However, as Israel recently expanded bombings in the Gaza Strip and the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon faces a crisis of collapse, fighting may reignite, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may once again pull market demand for safe havens. Gold and Bitcoin, viewed as safe-haven assets, are expected to be driven by safe-haven buying. Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, analyzed: “Gold prices are supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.” He stated that the downside is limited and expects the gold market to oscillate and consolidate by the end of the year. Currently, the overall economy is still shrouded in uncertainty, and investors are waiting for key economic data and the Fed's perspective on interest rate trends. This week, the most closely watched events are the release of US non-farm payroll data and speeches from Fed officials, including Chairman Powell. Related reports: Safe-haven demand surges! Gold rises 6% in a week to return to $2,712; how will this affect Bitcoin? Trump’s harsh words: BRICS countries daring to “de-dollarize” will face a 100% tariff! Gold experiences the largest single-day drop in nearly six months; is the safe-haven market gone? Note the Fed's rate decision announcement at 3 AM. Bloomberg research: Trump’s inauguration in January may become a short-term peak for BTC, while Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market weakens and can move independently? "Ceasefire agreement just came into effect; 'Israel bombed Lebanon again,' safe-haven demand for Bitcoin and gold rises again?" This article was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).