#今日市场观点

Real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a robust 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter of 2024, with signs that growth will slow slightly in the fourth quarter. The average forecast for the private sector is 2.2%, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently predicts 3.2%, based on the fairly limited data so far.

On the consumer side of the economy, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1% in October after increasing 0.5% in September. Given the recent volatility in these data, I would not read too much into the monthly fluctuations. The modest increase in October may partly reflect some payback for the strong September increase. Overall, household balance sheets continue to be in good shape, a condition that should help sustain spending going forward.

On the business side of the economy, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly in November but remained at a level that indicated a slight deterioration in overall business conditions for manufacturers for the fifth consecutive month. Today's Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey showed a similar trend. These readings were consistent with the industrial production data for the manufacturing sector, as has been the case for the past few months.