Author: Frank, PANews
The recently concluded November was destined to be a month where Bitcoin and MEME danced together. PNUT became the most dazzling star in the MEME track for November. It set a record of growing from $0 to a peak market cap of over $2 billion in a single month, creating countless wealth myths for diamond hands and smart money.
Setting aside the news boost from Musk's announcements and the listings on mainstream exchanges like Binance, how did those smart money and diamond hands manage to seize this golden project? What is the current state of the on-chain chip distribution? PANews conducted extensive data analysis on the top 1000 holding addresses of PNUT to attempt to uncover the secrets behind these leading chips.
First, this section explains the data sources and methods used in this analysis. This analysis uses the top 1000 holding addresses on-chain as the subject of analysis as of November 28. Due to issues with trading data sources, addresses belonging to bots, exchanges, trading pools, or anomalies were excluded, resulting in the analysis of approximately 624 addresses regarding their first purchase or transfer (price, amount), first sale or transfer (price, amount), some associated addresses, some large addresses, and early internal buying and selling addresses.
Diamond hands faster than Musk
First Purchase Time Distribution Chart
Through analysis, PANews found that the majority of these large holders' initial buying times were concentrated between November 2nd and November 4th. The highest number of addresses buying on November 3rd was 159. Following that, 138 addresses made their first purchases on November 2nd. From the timeline, the Peanut incident was first mentioned by Musk in the early hours of November 3rd.
Interestingly, these diamond hands made their purchases even earlier. In fact, the incident occurred on October 31st, with PNUT tokens being created on the same day. By November 2nd, multiple media outlets in the U.S. began to escalate discussions around the topic of 'a mouse's life is still a life,' indicating that many smart money players kept a close eye on Western hot topics and events, not limited to just following Musk.
However, after Musk's announcement, there were indeed many smart money addresses that chose to intervene during this time.
Entering the market when others are panicking.
From the buying prices, nearly half of the smart money chose to initially buy PNUT in the price range of $0.05 to $0.1.
From the charts, the yellow boxes basically represent the times and price ranges when the largest addresses within the top 1000 bought the most. In fact, before this price range, PNUT had already experienced two rallies, with the market cap reaching between $50 million and $100 million. Normally, a MEME coin rising to the $50 million to $100 million range in a short time would signal many to exit, but clearly, the real main players seemed to choose to enter here. This shows that the secret of smart money may not lie in seizing early chips, but in choosing to enter when others are too afraid to do so.
Additionally, from the total amount purchased on various dates, the main capital inflows of the top 1000 players were concentrated between November 2nd to 4th, and November 11th to 14th. The first interval is when PNUT just started to gain popularity, and most of the main funds were laid out during this stage. The second phase is when exchanges like Binance announced the listing of PNUT, and during this phase, another portion of the main players saw certainty and decided to enter. However, since PNUT's market capitalization was already close to $1 billion at this time, the amount bought was relatively less significant. Instead, it can be seen that the period from November 2nd to 4th was the clear entry range for the main players.
Large holders generally have longer holding times.
From the holding habits, the main holders have a significantly longer holding time than retail investors. Among the analyzed addresses, the average holding time is 39 hours, and this does not account for addresses that have not sold since purchase; if those are included, the average holding time would be even higher.
From the prices of sales or transfers, the initial selling or transfer prices are also mainly concentrated in the price range of $0.05 to $0.1. However, one factor that needs to be considered here is that many large addresses will, upon buying, immediately disperse the tokens to new addresses, which do not count as sales; therefore, the reference significance of the selling price range here is not very substantial. Further analysis by PANews on certain large addresses found that several addresses with holdings exceeding $10 million have not sold anything to date.
Who are the true diamond hands? There are addresses with returns exceeding ten million.
During the investigation, PANews discovered that multiple addresses' tokens originated from some of the same addresses. These addresses are mainly new addresses used by these real large holders to disperse their funds. In response, PANews conducted some investigations into the true large holders behind these.
Among these large addresses, the most striking is undoubtedly J8ZWHVX5CjZWcHb1fqNVSiwjRy21WFj8mxvFDddjbHxv (hereinafter referred to as 'J8ZWH').
This address first purchased 151,300 PNUT on 11-01-2024 for 10 SOL, later continuously added to their position, holding a maximum of 28 million PNUT, with an average holding price of about $0.0001. Calculating at a maximum price of $2.46, their return on investment could reach 24,600 times. On November 2nd, they sold 15.97 million tokens for a profit of $109,371. They still hold nearly $12.6 million in PNUT.
Another address, 2h7s3FpSvc6v2oHke6Uqg191B5fPCeFTmMGnh5oPWhX7 (tonkadriving.sol), is also quite legendary. This address discovered PNUT on November 1st and frantically invested funds, spending $67,000 to buy 9.15 million PNUT when PNUT's market cap was likely only around $7.3 million. They completed their accumulation in half an hour, and during their buying process, they once pushed the token price up to $0.01. Other players began to sell off, while tonkadriving.sol continuously absorbed chips, ultimately completing their initial position at an average price of $0.007.
On November 3rd, tonkadriving.sol also sent 4 million PNUT tokens to the creator of PNUT, then worth $244,000. If tonkadriving.sol knew that these tokens would be worth over $10 million at their peak, would he regret this donation?
Early internal players turned $22 into $2.91 million
For MEME players, many prefer to participate in internal markets, as the earlier they buy, the higher the return rate. After analyzing the 276 addresses participating in the internal market, PANews found that only 4 addresses ultimately appeared in the top 1000 holdings.
For example, take the address B8S2aupPvX3ARWgyEYS1gbHc3jTb2Ta4Q2i37HUewGnf, which used two addresses to purchase a total of about $280 for 13.75 million PNUT tokens. In the following two days, it sold nearly all these tokens for $5,657. By November 16, this address spent $148,000 to buy back 86,000 PNUT coins. Based on the earliest holdings, he missed out on as much as $34.1 million.
The strongest player on the internal market is undoubtedly gUPH84k3YhMSjXSfXrTAUzCjuqQinQMZg9TkAkoSR77. This address spent $22 to purchase 2.37 million PNUT tokens on the internal market, and has not traded since. Currently, these tokens are worth approximately $2.91 million. His return on investment has reached 132,000 times, making him a model of the 10U war god. However, from the trading habits, it is highly likely that this address is a trading bot address, which is still engaged in hundreds of dollars of high-frequency trading. Perhaps the owner of the address has long forgotten that the unintentional action at that time has yielded unimaginable returns. Another internal market address, CrjPMnpDyJ16qpo1hR74iEQ2bypvAeMqxmxm42tB9ppr, also purchased for $22 and has sold a fixed amount of 5,902 tokens each time, having sold $194,000 so far, with the account still holding tokens worth approximately $82,000.
It appears that the way to maintain the highest returns is to forget about it, but not completely forget.
In analyzing PNUT, we have seen many lucky stories of wealth accumulation and also discovered many regrets. Many addresses had very low early holding costs but almost all sold out before PNUT truly increased. From trading habits, we can observe these players' styles; many do not have large amounts of capital and choose to clear all positions when their investment grows from tens of dollars to thousands. Yet, unknowingly, they missed out on tens of millions of dollars in profits, and this is very likely the biggest opportunity of their trading careers.
And those accounts with large funds generally remain calm. They invest tens of thousands to millions of dollars but choose to hold firm, at most opting to reclaim their principal when profits are substantial. The rest is just letting the bullets fly a bit longer. Perhaps a saying fits here: one can only earn money within the realm of their understanding.
However, to put it bluntly, for ordinary people, making dozens of times on a single trade is already quite difficult. Moreover, without the release of these chips, it would have been hard for PNUT to become the MEME king of November.
