According to historical data, the peak of this indicator typically occurs in the mid-term of a bull market, and there is usually a time difference of about 352 to 354 days between this peak and the top of the bull market. Specifically:

In the mid-term of the 2016 bull market, this indicator peaked, with a difference of 354 days from the bull market peak at the end of 2017.

In the mid-term of the 2020 bull market, this indicator also peaked, with a difference of 352 days from the bull market peak in the first half of 2021.

In the mid-term of the 2024 bull market, this indicator has already peaked, with 57 days having passed since the bull market peak.

From the chart, the indicator above represents the BTC price, while the one below shows the proportion of BTC that has not moved on-chain for 6-12 months.

It is worth noting that historically, during this cycle, the BTC price typically experiences three major pullbacks (marked by the blue arrows in the chart).