Polymarket has rapidly emerged thanks to the electoral frenzy and the appeal of trading non-political events, but its future development still depends on regulatory compliance and market diversification.
Author: @mattsolomon
Translation: Plain Language Blockchain
How did Polymarket turn election predictions into billion-dollar bets? @animocaresearch's latest report offers some analysis, and the following is a concise summary.
1. What is Polymarket?
@Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can trade the outcomes of future events.
Unlike traditional gambling, Polymarket allows participants to buy and sell shares on whether an event will happen or not, with the price of 'YES' shares reflecting the market consensus on the probability of that event occurring.
• Prediction Mechanism: Trades are conducted peer-to-peer, with real-time pricing based on user orders.
• Token Usage: Trades are conducted using USDC, and ERC-1155 Tokens represent predictions.
2. Polymarket's popularity and influence have rapidly risen
Since its establishment in 2020, Polymarket has experienced explosive growth, especially during the U.S. election cycle:
• User Interaction: In October 2024 alone, over 300,000 new users joined.
• Public Attention: Covered by major media outlets like The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, and even mentioned by figures like Trump.
• Traffic: In October, traffic reached 35 million visits, approaching top gambling websites.
Trading Volume Insights Polymarket's trading volume surge: • Trading volume surged: from $40 million in April 2024 to $2.5 billion in October. • Open interest: increased from $20 million to $400 million, comparable to mainstream decentralized trading platforms (DEX) like SushiSwap. • Event Focus: Although the election market dominates, non-election events like sports have also attracted significant trading activity.
3. The Founder's Story
Polymarket's founder Shayne Coplan has an intriguing story:
• Early Start: Started mining Bitcoin at 15 in New York and invested in Ethereum at 16.
• Entrepreneurial Journey: Dropped out of New York University at 17 to focus on Web3 projects, and founded Polymarket in 2020.
• Leadership: Leading the company through regulatory challenges and approaching a billion-dollar valuation with recent financing.
4. Is Polymarket a fleeting electoral phenomenon, or will it endure?
Although its growth is closely tied to the U.S. elections:
• Beyond Elections: A large number of users participate in trading non-political events, demonstrating its broader appeal.
• Regulatory Compliance: Successfully addressing regulatory challenges may mean continued operation.
• Community and Media: It has integrated into media consumption habits, indicating the possibility of long-term existence.
If you want to learn more, feel free to read @animocaresearch's report: https://bit.ly/4ePxTNw
So, in the end, do you think Polymarket will continue to thrive as a universal prediction platform, or will it gradually lose influence after the elections? Feel free to leave comments for discussion.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/12/5566.html
Source: https://x.com/mattsolomon/status/1863093356282425766
