The U.S. economy is about to迎来 a 'super week.' The so-called super week refers to the fact that many Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, will successively express their opinions, coupled with the release of all labor market data, including the non-farm payrolls in November. This week may become an important time point that influences the direction of the U.S. economy.

Among these critical points with major events clustered together, the most attention is still on interest rate cut expectations.

From the data, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December have actually warmed up in the near term. As of last Friday, the market expected a 65% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut rates at its last meeting of the year on December 18, up from about 50% a week ago.

However, the expectations from the interest rate futures market show that due to an increasingly pessimistic outlook on inflation, market traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to only cut rates twice next year, far fewer than the previously expected four rate cuts.

An executive from an investment company stated: The rate cut process may be influenced by non-farm payroll data, and the market hopes to see something positive, but also does not want the data to perform too well. If the data is too optimistic, it will raise questions about whether the Federal Reserve will really proceed with further rate cuts.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his last speech in November that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut rates, citing the robust job market and inflation rates still above the 2% target.

However, the U.S. non-farm payrolls in October plummeted to 12,000 new jobs, and the data immediately caused market turmoil because this poor data is the lowest level since 2020, a stark contrast to the initially expected target of 100,000 jobs.

Although most Wall Street analysts believe that this disappointing data is mainly due to hurricane disasters and strikes at some companies, the overall deterioration of the job market remains concerning.

Therefore, whether the November non-farm data released this Friday can return to normal or at least exceed market expectations will likely affect the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate cut plans.