Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
Latest data shows that XRP's market cap once surpassed 136.2 billion USD, surpassing USDT to return to the 'third largest cryptocurrency by market cap,' back to the level before the 2020 SEC/Ripple lawsuit.
Previously, Odaily Planet Daily provided a detailed explanation and analysis of the 'U.S. court rules Ripple did not violate federal securities laws' in August, see (XRP once surged over 20%, another stage victory for Ripple in the SEC lawsuit). Nearly four months later, the price of XRP has surpassed 2.3 USD, increasing nearly fourfold, and the market is optimistic about XRP's future performance.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize and organize the latest developments and related information about Ripple and XRP in this article for readers' reference.
With both macro and micro factors overlapping, XRP's market cap has surged.
According to Infinite Market Cap data, based on a market cap of 136.2 billion USD, XRP's market cap briefly surpassed China Life, ranking 139th among global assets; currently, its market cap has fallen back to about 132.8 billion USD. Overall, the surge in XRP's market cap is mainly attributed to multiple positive factors on both macro and micro levels:
Macro aspect: Trump's presidency is expected to help settle the 'XRP vs SEC dispute.'
With Trump's successful election as the new U.S. president, the six-year debate over whether XRP is a security may reach a final ruling, as Trump, being the 'crypto-friendly president,' is expected to play a positive role in the continued development of the cryptocurrency industry.
Meanwhile, as an active participant in the U.S. presidential campaign, Ripple previously donated 45 million USD to PAC before the 2024 election, making it one of the largest donors to Fairshake alongside cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz. Recently, it donated another 25 million USD to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence crypto political leanings.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm are competing for related positions, seeking to have a voice in his planned U.S. policy reforms, which also lays the groundwork for XRP's recent strong market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also frequently spoken out, emphasizing the changes that could occur under President Trump's leadership concerning cryptocurrency regulation, mentioning: 'Ripple and XRP may face a turning point, as the new pro-cryptocurrency regulatory shift is expected to bring new hope and potentially resolve years of legal disputes.'
Subsequently, he pointed out: 'The SEC has been intervening in the cryptocurrency market, picking winners and losers for 6 years... and it has been 4 years since the SEC sued Ripple... Now, as these external (frankly unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually disappear, we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, headwinds are becoming tailwinds, and the opportunities are immense for those of us who believe in the future of XRP.' Moreover, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman also indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump and discussed cryptocurrency-related topics.
In November, the progress of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple was that 'the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's litigation briefs to be submitted by January 15, 2025.' Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved a final judgment on the resolved Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered the suspension of the remaining unresolved lawsuits, a decision that shortened the class action timeline and paved the way for the trial starting on January 21, 2025. In addition, the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler previously stated that he may resign before or after Trump's inauguration, which also helped boost XRP's price earlier.
Coincidentally, the day before January 21 is just the first day of Trump's inauguration. Therefore, it can be said that Trump will play a 'key role' in this 'struggle between cryptocurrency institutions and regulators.'
Micro aspect: 1 billion XRP locked in custody, stablecoin release imminent.
From the perspective of the project's own development, XRP may also 'bloom anew on an old tree.'
One of the important reasons directly driving the rise in XRP prices may be the '1 billion XRP tokens locked in custody' that occurred early this morning. According to Whale Alert monitoring, at 2:21 AM today, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP in a custody wallet, valued at approximately 1.546 billion USD. Previously, Ripple stated that it uses a custodial account system to provide transparency and certainty to the XRP market. The company locks up most of its XRP holdings to ensure that it does not supply the market excessively and manipulate prices. However, the company also uses XRP in the custodial account to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. Releasing 1 billion XRP tokens from the custodial account each month does not mean that all will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutions or retail investors, use some for its own purposes, or return some to new trusts.
Additionally, as a cryptocurrency payment company, Ripple plans to expand its territory into the stablecoin space. In mid-November, according to official news, Ripple announced the upcoming launch of the dollar stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), which is a stablecoin designed specifically for enterprise use cases (such as payments), focusing on stability, efficiency, and transparency, aimed at enhancing Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meeting the growing demand for dollar-denominated transactions. There are reports that this stablecoin may launch on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has also been active in promoting industry cooperation. In October, the digital asset infrastructure provider Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, with B2C2 and Keyrock supporting its liquidity. Additionally, according to official news, the cryptocurrency payment infrastructure company MoonPay had previously announced its collaboration with Ripple to support users in purchasing, storing, and managing XRP using MoonPay accounts. In late November, Ripple also announced a partnership with Archax and UK asset management company ABRDN PLC, planning to launch the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger.
Stimulated by a series of positive news, Ripple and XRP are迎来 'the second spring of crypto.'
Moreover, the XRP ETF will continue to be a highlight in the cryptocurrency market, attracting ongoing market attention.
Industry insiders actively express their views: Will the XRP ETF be the first to go live?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the XRP ETF is 'inevitable.' His main basis comes from the increasing share of Bitcoin spot ETF growth. According to the latest data, the total on-chain holdings of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have surpassed 1.12 million BTC (approximately 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holdings are valued at 108.9 billion USD.
Dune data dashboard
Meanwhile, XRP has received strong support from cryptocurrency industry insiders from various fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF registration has been initiated: WisdomTree takes the 'first shot', followed closely by Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that the global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA. The company has confirmed that it is a legitimate filing, and it is reported that WisdomTree manages assets exceeding 100 billion USD.
At the same time, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, stated: 'Currently, there are three ETF applications holding the currently third largest cryptocurrency asset, XRP.'
Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares have all submitted spot XRP ETF applications. It is speculated that other issuers will also join in.
'Grayscale Select': XRP has now joined the cryptocurrency portfolio.
At the beginning of November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP trust fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, providing an investment opportunity to access XRP. XRP is the core token of the distributed network XRP Ledger that supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale again announced that it has opened private placements for 17 token trust funds, including XRP, to qualified accredited investors.
And the results prove that Grayscale's choice is very wise: According to statistics, Grayscale's cryptocurrency holdings value increased significantly in November. Based on data from Cryptorank, its cryptocurrency holdings' market cap grew by over 85% in the past month, largely driven by tokens including XRP (which saw an increase of over 262% during the same period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a partner of Ripple.
In November, Ripple announced plans to invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, though the specific investment amount has not been disclosed. It is understood that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP was previously known as the 'European XRP ETP' and is part of Bitwise's suite of cryptocurrency asset funds.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the decision to invest in Bitwise funds aligns very well with the growing interest in cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded products. Subsequently, Bitwise officially announced that its Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) has over 80 million USD in assets under management, with Ripple being one of the investors. This product is traded on Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry insiders express their stance: Solana system, BNB system, ADA system, etc., all stand up.
Just today, Solana co-founder Toly posted, 'We need a national XRP reserve.' This statement is also seen as a response to Trump's earlier emphasis on 'establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin.'
At the end of November, CZ retweeted news stating that because XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may drop the Ripple case. This news came from an interview with former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano (ADA), praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, calling him a 'great CEO' and describing their interaction as 'highly collaborative.' This public exchange has sparked speculation that Cardano and Ripple may explore establishing a strategic partnership.
Data aspect: Market trading is active, multiple data points hit historical highs
From the perspective of market data, XRP is also one of the leaders.
In the South Korean market, Upbit's trading volume surged over 100% within a week, with cryptocurrencies including XRP being the largest contributors. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached 38.6 billion USD, far exceeding Bitcoin's trading volume of 30.1 billion USD.
In terms of price, XRP briefly broke 2.29 USDT today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
In addition, regarding contract data, according to Coinglass data, the total unclosed positions of XRP futures contracts across the network amount to 1.739 billion ETH, approximately 4.051 billion USD, reaching a historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, the unclosed positions of Bybit XRP contracts are 548 million XRP (approximately 1.277 billion USD), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP broke 2 USD, its 24-hour trading volume exceeded 25 billion USD, currently reaching 25,338,798,676 USD, with a trading volume to market cap ratio of 18.4%, indicating high trading activity relative to its market cap.
To add a point, influenced by various positive news, the number of XRP-related posts on the X platform has reached 480,000, even surpassing the meme-rich DOGE-related content significantly.
One of the content indicators of the X platform
If all goes well, the XRP ETF may become the 'third cryptocurrency ETF' in the U.S. market after BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: Where is the future direction of Ripple and XRP?
As XRP's market cap once again returned to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, the long-standing 'first case of crypto regulation' originating in 2018 is approaching its conclusion, and different views exist in the market regarding the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of the large Japanese financial services institution SBI Holdings, stated that once the SEC issues are resolved, Ripple should quickly prepare for an IPO. (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: SBI Holdings has been cooperating with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovation. Kitao is a core figure in the Ripple-SBI collaboration and joined the Ripple board in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017 when he predicted XRP as the global standard for digital currency, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs, and scalability.) Although similar proposals were previously shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, they can also be seen as one possibility for Ripple's future direction.
After all, as the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies continues to improve, more 'cryptocurrency concept stocks' may land on the U.S. stock market. At that time, Ripple and XRP may usher in another wave of developmental peaks.
