Today, the old mainstream is experiencing a wave of sustained increases led by XRP. The main reason may be that investors in these varieties have already been mostly washed out, making it relatively light. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the support around 95,000, and from the liquidation map, the 7-day support around 95,000 is still quite strong. The pressure above is around 99,000. In the evening, when American institutions are at work, it is expected to rise easily, so there's really nothing to worry about during the daytime pullback.
From the perspective of Bitcoin's market capitalization proportion, there is still some room for a pullback below, which indicates that altcoins still have some room for catch-up.
In the past month, the total market capitalization of altcoins ranked outside the top 10 has doubled, while Bitcoin has risen by 50%. In simple terms, if your account hasn't doubled in the past month, you have lagged behind the average altcoin increase. If the increase is less than 50%, you have even lagged behind Bitcoin. Currently, there is a clear switch in market funds; previously, Bitcoin + meme was a combination, while the traditional altcoins driven by ETH are another combination. The SOL series has already exploded, so it is temporarily in decline, while the BSC series has not yet exploded. In the past ten days, funds have clearly moved out of Bitcoin speculation and into the Ethereum system, and funds from on-chain meme coins have followed suit. Currently, it is believed that this wave of traditional altcoin speculation will continue.
In the past two years, Bitcoin prices have risen sixfold, but altcoins have only increased by less than three times. Considering that the overall funding environment is far from what it was in 2021, expectations for this round of altcoins have been significantly lowered. Completing a few times with a full position would be very satisfying.
After this round, most people have understood the impact of the macro funding environment on altcoins. Similar to small stocks in the Russell 2000 of the U.S. stock market, only during a liquidity phase can the Russell 2000 significantly outperform large tech stocks, and altcoins can significantly outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, even during a bull cycle but in a tightening state, holding altcoins for 85% of the time can be painful. In the next bull-bear cycle, one must consider the macro funding environment to determine the best way to allocate currencies.
Aside from the altcoin market driven by some funds switching, there is a possibility next year of a new batch of ETF applications being approved. Currently, the media has reported that there are 4 altcoins applying for ETFs, with 2 more in preparation. These ETF applications may serve as the foundation for the next wave of the altcoin market, but the timing is estimated to be in 2025 or even later. This is the second wave of market possibility considered under the condition that macroeconomic policies do not loosen.
Speaking of ETH, last Friday, Ethereum's ETF saw a single-day capital inflow of over $330 million, while Bitcoin's inflow on the same day was only $320 million. This is the first time in human history that Ethereum ETF has outperformed Bitcoin in a single day, even trending on social media. Therefore, Ethereum's performance over the weekend was also quite good, with prices peaking at 3,760, and the eth/BTC exchange rate exceeding 0.038. This can be considered a slight catch-up market. However, there is still some distance to Ethereum's real breakout. After all, Bitcoin has reached new highs so many times, and Ethereum hasn't even returned to 3,977 in May and 4,093 in March this year, with a further gap of $1,000 from the historical peak of 4,800, which is much farther than Bitcoin's distance from 100,000. It can only be said that Ethereum's upward potential is still significant.
In December, millions of dollars will flow into the cryptocurrency market, so adjust your altcoin positions promptly.
The following are the altcoins that I think are worth ambushing.
NEAR
NEAR is very close to breaking out. Leaving puns aside, it indeed looks like it. The downtrend line extending since early 2022 has once again become resistance. However, since the price is currently holding above the 0.236 Fibonacci level, a breakout may not be far off.
If a breakout occurs, the first target will be to break through the next Fibonacci level of $8.53, but more importantly, the $NEAR bulls will need to push the price a bit higher and break through the volatility high of $9.11. If this happens, the downtrend will be officially broken, and it is very likely to continue upward from there.
PEPE
Emerging from the popular meme 'Pepe the Frog', PEPE has carried its own traffic since its inception, with market acceptance skyrocketing. The 'no tax + burn' dual mechanism cleverly alleviates inflation concerns, having once created a market capitalization performance of $1.6 billion. Today, community enthusiasm remains high, and demand is bullish, getting ready to continue its legend and expand its territory.
ACT
Musk has retweeted content about AI Agents for two consecutive days, indicating a significant rise in interest in this track, which is expected to continue soaring in the future. The western world composed of AI Agents is the most imaginative/hottest track in this bull market. That is why I have always firmly held onto act, as it directly benefits from the entire track's bonuses.
Currently, ACT is the only token related to AI Agents on the Binance platform, which gives it a rare advantage.
$act community is working on using every possible means to help AI memes develop. Currently, many AI agents are already working around act.
AI memes are the most important track for on-chain assets and may even recreate a meme ecosystem. As the only AI meme traded on major exchanges, act = AI meme track index.
