Bitcoin is approaching the historic threshold of nearly $100,000, but two major macroeconomic factors - the strength of the US dollar and Japan's monetary policy - are putting pressure on the upward momentum of $BTC .



1. Strength from the US dollar



André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise, emphasizes that Bitcoin often struggles when the USD appreciates. The reason is that a stronger USD usually coincides with tightening global liquidity, which is unfavorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.


• USD Index rises sharply: Data from TradingView shows that the USD Index has increased from 103.42 on the day of the US election to 105.93.


• Fed rate cut expectations weaken: The CME FedWatch tool predicts a 66% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at the meeting on December 18, but there is still a 34% chance that rates will remain unchanged, further strengthening the USD.



2. Pressure from Japan's monetary policy



Besides the USD, the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates is also a concerning factor.


• Impact from the 'yen carry trade' policy: Investors borrow Yen at low interest rates to invest in other assets. When the Yen strengthens, this strategy is reversed, causing significant liquidations in the market. In August of this year, the BoJ triggered a major sell-off in Bitcoin when the Yen appreciated significantly.


• Possibility of interest rate hikes: Consumer prices in Tokyo have risen for the first time in three months, increasing the likelihood that the BoJ will raise interest rates in December. Governor Kazuo Ueda has also confirmed that sustainable inflation in Japan is approaching, making low-interest-rate policies no longer appropriate.



Impact on Bitcoin



The two aforementioned factors are creating an unfavorable environment for Bitcoin. If the USD and Yen continue to strengthen, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain and surpass the $100,000 mark, even though investment demand from institutions and individuals remains very high.



Bitcoin is at a critical stage: will long-term investors be strong enough to withstand the pressure from macroeconomic factors to maintain market momentum? Time will answer this question.