Last week (2024.11.22 - 2024.11.29) global asset performance: major economy stock markets had mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.8% leading the gains, the S&P 500 and Hang Seng Index rising 1.1% and 1.0% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 fell 0.2%; COMEX copper rose 1.4%, London gold spot and IPE Brent crude oil futures fell 2.4% and 3.1% respectively; the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds fell to 4.18%, down 23 basis points, domestic 10Y Treasury futures rose 0.15%; the U.S. dollar index fell 1.6%, closing at 105.8, while the yen and renminbi appreciated, with the dollar to yen at 149.8 and the dollar to renminbi at 7.2.
Economic aspect: U.S. personal disposable income and consumer spending rebounded year-on-year in October, PCE and core PCE price indexes rebounded; new home sales significantly declined, and the S&P/CS home price index continued to fall year-on-year; durable goods and core capital goods new orders turned positive and rebounded year-on-year.
Inflation expectations declined, with U.S. 5-year inflation expectations at 2.33%, down 10 basis points, and 10-year expectations down to 2.26%, down 8 basis points. Expectations for interest rate cuts rose, with the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December rising to 66%, and the total rate cut expectation for 2025 recovering to 50 basis points.
Europe: In November, the Eurozone HICP rebounded year-on-year, while core HICP remained flat; the economic sentiment index slightly rebounded, and the EU's crude steel production increased year-on-year in October.
Policy aspect: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may cut rates in December; the Bank of Japan's pay rise is a key to rate hikes; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut by 50 basis points, the Bank of Korea cut by 25 basis points, and the Central Bank of Nigeria raised by 25 basis points.