November has ended perfectly, with BTC rising about 37% this month. Based on recent trends, if November closes with a rise, December usually continues to rise.
This month, the cryptocurrency market has accelerated into a trend:
The trends of Ethereum and altcoins have already taken shape, the inflow of funds into ETFs is accelerating, Bitcoin's market share is declining, and Ethereum's rising exchange rate trend has also become very obvious.
XRP has now broken through the previous bull market high, with the current price at $2.39, and its market capitalization has surpassed Solana (SOL), ranking fifth. This trend can consider making some allocations in this old altcoin track.
Now let's talk about today's BTC trend: from the candlestick perspective, both the 1-hour and 4-hour levels show an upward trend, while the 12-hour and daily levels are in a sideways but slightly upward state. Today's resistance level is at $99,600, with support at $95,700.
Why have old altcoins suddenly surged?
This weekend, institutions are resting, and the market is overall in a state of fluctuation.
Bitcoin is fluctuating around $97,500, while Ethereum is consolidating around $3,750.
In terms of altcoins, some old coins like XRP, HBAR, ADA, and EOS have all risen more than 30%.
This indicates that Bitcoin's performance has begun to weaken, while Ethereum and other altcoins are starting to gain strength.
This situation is typical for altcoin trends. As long as Bitcoin can maintain stability, altcoins may rotate and rise.
On Coinbase exchange, XRP's spot trading volume actually ranks first, with the trading volume exceeding the sum of BTC, ETH, and DOGE. This indicates that the FOMO sentiment among American investors has started to brew.
XRP's market capitalization has also reached a new high, returning to the top three positions, and it plans to issue a new stablecoin, which is undoubtedly an important piece of news.
Additionally, the trading volume of XLM's Stellar coin has also surpassed that of Solana (SOL). This old project XLM has dropped 90% over the past four years, but in the last three weeks, it has surged impressively, quickly returning to historical highs.
From the current trend, as Ethereum rises, funds are gradually flowing into altcoins on exchanges. Previously held altcoin projects should not be easily swapped out, as there is a high probability of a rotation trend coming up.
The reason for the previous lack of altcoin season was that the market lacked new funds, but with the Fed's continued interest rate cuts, the incremental funds in the market have begun to gradually increase.
Although many exchanges have low-quality coins, these coins can still be hyped up.
However, picking these projects also has its subtleties.
Looking at it now, the two most worthy targets for speculation are: new meme coins just launched, and those old coins that have become active again.
Recently, those that performed well are basically the old coins from 2017 and the new meme coins from this year, as they have the least supply pressure.
Personally, I am optimistic about some new projects, such as the recent ACT.
In this bull market, it is recommended to focus on projects in new tracks and new narratives. Because the valuation space for these projects has almost no upper limit, the market's imagination about them is vast.
Think from a different perspective: if you were a capable manipulator, would you choose to pump a target that had already peaked in the previous cycle, or a project with vast imagination and no trapped positions above?
The selection of old coins is much simpler:
For a DeFi protocol, if its various data is worse than during the previous bull market, its market capitalization will not exceed the previous high;
A GameFi or metaverse token, if its story has proven to be hollow, its market capitalization will basically be manipulated by secondary market manipulators;
For a public chain project, if it hasn't kept up with the hype like meme coins, and still measures itself with traditional DeFi thinking, it will be difficult for its market capitalization to break through previous highs.
The market no longer has much imagination for these old projects!
The SOL short-term major top has already formed!
SOL has truly shone this wave, starting from a low of $8, now it has increased more than 30 times, and even in just over a month, it has doubled, showing strong performance. Moreover, it has been influenced by MEME and has hardly had any significant corrections, appearing to be a hot trend.
However, recently it feels like the MEME in the SOL ecosystem is a bit weak, which is actually quite normal. After all, having gone through that wave of enthusiasm, projects like GOAT, LUCE, BAN, SLOP, PNUT, and ACT have brought a wealth effect of more than ten times.
Now that the hot spot has passed, although Desci has emerged, it hasn't been as explosive as everyone expected, and the entire MEME market of the SOL ecosystem has entered a wealth vacuum period.
Moreover, there are many projects that have acquired a large amount of SOL, which is also a potential selling pressure.
From a technical perspective, SOL has now reached the highest point area of the 2021 bull market, where the pressure is very high, and it is not easy to break through. Many people may choose to take profits here.
Moreover, the anticipated ETF may not push SOL's price too high.
Wall Street still highly favors BTC. The fund inflow data for ETH is far inferior compared to BTC, not to mention SOL. Moreover, in the future, coins like XRP, LINK, and AVAX are likely to have ETFs approved, so the positive expectations for ETFs are gradually diminishing.
If there isn't particularly innovative MEME narratives or strong consensus emerging, I think in the current state, it will be difficult to see SOL break historical highs and continue to rise.
Smart people have already taken this step:
In the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market, several ways to make money:
Beta Strategy
This is actually about going all in on large coins in the early stages of a trend, such as Bitcoin, major coins, Solana, Ethereum, BNB, etc. Once the trend starts, don't hesitate, because the risks of these large coins are relatively small, and the main test is whether you dare to decisively get in when you see the trend starting.
Whether you dare to go all in is the key to decision-making.
Alpha Strategy
Selecting potentially strong sectors through fundamentals, major events, market cycles, etc., especially those leading coins or secondary leading coins.
This strategy tests your vision and patience. Vision determines whether you can select strong sectors, and patience determines whether you can hold on through volatility. If the chosen coin is indeed strong, looking back later will feel like a matter of course. However, in reality, many strong coins go through a very volatile process and can easily be shaken out in short-term fluctuations.
The biggest risk is that if you judge incorrectly, you may be brought down by a market downturn, missing the entire opportunity.
Super Alpha Strategy
This is more complicated, requiring you to adjust your positions based on the rotation of different sectors. For example, in the early stages of a trend, you can heavily invest in Bitcoin, major coins, and Solana, and then switch to Ethereum or some more volatile strong small coins when it's about time.
This strategy requires higher technical requirements: you need to be very sensitive to the rotation rules of the market, and have a certain level of technical analysis ability to judge which coin has explosive potential through volume, price, and patterns, and be decisive when switching positions.
The biggest risk is operational errors, which may lead to missing out on a sector or selling a sector too early.
On-chain Strategy
This round of opportunity is on-chain. Although the winning rate is not high, the odds are substantial. This can only be attempted with small positions, not large ones. The key is vision, patience, execution, and discipline. Honestly, those who can execute this strategy well are usually top players, not ordinary skilled ones.
For most people, if funds are abundant, the Beta strategy can serve as the main position, then a portion of funds can be allocated to Alpha and super Alpha strategies; if funds are limited, focus on the second and third strategies. Regardless of the strategy, it essentially considers winning rate, odds, slope (time cycle), and position.
The current challenge in the cryptocurrency market is:
Alpha and Super Alpha strategies are highly cyclical, and the core is an accelerated version of the overall market trend. When the overall market is good, the Alpha strategy is still effective, but once the overall trend reverses, the drawdown speed and magnitude of these strategies will be very large.
The root cause is that liquidity and market sentiment dominate most trends. Without strong fundamental support, counter-trend operations become very difficult.
