Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
Latest data shows that XRP's market value once broke through $136.2 billion, surpassing USDT and reclaiming the title of 'the third largest cryptocurrency by market value', returning to the level before the 2020 SEC/Ripple lawsuit.
Previously, Odaily Planet Daily provided a detailed analysis of the 'US court ruling that Ripple did not violate federal securities laws' in August, see (XRP once surged over 20%, another phased victory for Ripple in the SEC lawsuit). Nearly 4 months later, the price of XRP has surpassed $2.3, increasing nearly 4 times, and the market is relatively optimistic about XRP's future performance.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent situation and related information about Ripple and XRP in this article for readers' reference.
Dual macro and micro factors lead to a surge in XRP market value
According to Infinite Market Cap data, based on a market value of $136.2 billion, XRP's market value briefly surpassed China Life, ranking 139th in global assets; currently, its market value has fallen back to around $132.8 billion. Overall, XRP's surge in market value is mainly due to multiple favorable factors on both macro and micro levels:
On a macro level: Trump's inauguration is expected to help settle the 'XRP vs SEC dispute'
With Trump's successful election as the new US president, the long-standing debate between Ripple and the SEC over whether XRP is a security may reach a final ruling, after all, as a 'crypto-friendly president', Trump will play a positive role in the subsequent development of the cryptocurrency industry.
At the same time, as an active participant in the US presidential campaign, Ripple previously donated $45 million to PAC ahead of the 2024 election, making it one of the largest donors to Fairshake alongside cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz. Recently, it donated another $25 million to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence cryptocurrency political trends.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm are competing for relevant positions, seeking to have a voice in the US policy reforms he plans, which also lays the groundwork for XRP's recent good market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has previously spoken out frequently, emphasizing the potential changes in cryptocurrency regulation under President Trump's leadership, where he mentioned: 'Ripple and XRP may face a turning point, as the new crypto-friendly regulatory shift is expected to bring new hope and possibly resolve years-long legal disputes.' He then pointed out: 'The SEC has been intervening in the cryptocurrency market, picking winners and losers for 6 years... and it has been 4 years since the SEC sued Ripple... Now, as these external (frankly unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually disappear, we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, headwinds are becoming tailwinds, and for those of us who believe in XRP's future, the opportunities are enormous.' Moreover, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman also indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump and discussed cryptocurrency-related topics.
In November, the progress of the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple was that 'the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's litigation brief to be submitted by January 15, 2025.' Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved a final ruling on the resolved Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered a pause on the remaining unresolved lawsuits, a decision that shortened the duration of the class action and paved the way for a trial starting on January 21, 2025. Additionally, the current SEC chairman Gary Gensler previously stated that he may resign before or after Trump takes office, which also contributed to the previous price increase of XRP.
Coincidentally, the day before January 21 is exactly the first day of Trump's inauguration. Therefore, it can be said that Trump will play a 'key' role in this 'battle between crypto institutions and regulators'.
On a micro level: 1 billion XRP custody lock, stablecoin release imminent
From the perspective of the project's own development, XRP may also 'bloom anew from an old tree'.
One of the key reasons driving the increase in XRP price may be the '1 billion XRP tokens custody lock' that began at 2:21 AM today. According to Whale Alert monitoring, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP in a custody wallet, valued at approximately $1.546 billion. Previously, Ripple stated that it uses a custody account system to provide transparency and certainty for the XRP market. The company locks the majority of its XRP holdings to ensure it does not flood the market and manipulate prices. However, the company also uses XRP in custody accounts to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. Releasing 1 billion XRP tokens from the custody account each month does not mean that all will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutional or retail investors, use some for its own purposes, or return some to new trusts.
Additionally, as a crypto payment company, Ripple plans to expand its territory into the stablecoin field. In mid-November, according to official news, Ripple announced the upcoming launch of its USD stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), which is designed for enterprise use cases (such as payments) and focuses on stability, efficiency, and transparency, aimed at enhancing Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meeting the growing demand for USD-denominated transactions. Reports suggest that this stablecoin may be launched on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has been very active in promoting industry collaboration. In October, digital asset infrastructure provider Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, supported by market B2C2 and Keyrock for its liquidity. Additionally, according to official news, cryptocurrency payment infrastructure company MoonPay had previously announced its partnership with Ripple to support users in purchasing, storing, and managing XRP using MoonPay accounts. In late November, Ripple also announced a partnership with Archax and UK asset management company ABRDN PLC, with plans to launch the first tokenized currency market fund on the XRP Ledger.
Under a series of favorable news, Ripple and XRP welcome their 'crypto second spring'.
Moreover, the XRP ETF will become the main event in the cryptocurrency market going forward, continuing to attract market attention.
Industry insiders actively express that the XRP ETF will be launched first?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the XRP ETF is 'inevitable'. His main basis comes from the growing share of Bitcoin spot ETF growth. According to the latest data, the total on-chain holding of US Bitcoin spot ETFs has surpassed 1.12 million BTC (approximately 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holding value reached $108.9 billion.
Dune data panel
Meanwhile, XRP has received strong support from cryptocurrency industry professionals from different fields, mainly reflected in several aspects:
XRP ETF registration has started: WisdomTree fires the 'first shot', followed closely by Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA, and the company has confirmed its legal filing, reportedly managing over $100 billion in assets.
Meanwhile, according to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, 'Currently, there are 3 ETF applications holding the third-largest cryptocurrency asset XRP by market value. Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares have all submitted spot XRP ETFs. It is speculated that other issuers will also join in.'
'Grayscale Select': XRP has now joined the crypto investment portfolio
At the beginning of November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP trust fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, providing investment opportunities to access XRP. XRP is the core token of the distributed network XRP Ledger, which supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale reiterated that it has opened private placements for 17 token trust funds, including XRP, to eligible accredited investors.
And the results show that Grayscale's choice is very wise: According to statistics, Grayscale's cryptocurrency holdings value significantly increased in November. According to Cryptorank data, its cryptocurrency holdings market value grew by over 85% in the past month, driven mainly by tokens including XRP (which saw a rise of over 262% during the same period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a partner of Ripple
In November, Ripple announced it would invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, with specific investment amounts undisclosed. It is understood that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP was previously known as 'European XRP ETP' and is part of Bitwise's cryptocurrency asset fund suite. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the decision to invest in the Bitwise fund aligns very well with the growing interest in cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded products. Subsequently, Bitwise officially announced that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) has an asset management scale exceeding $80 million, with Ripple as one of the investors. This product is listed on Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry insiders express their views: Solana system, BNB system, ADA system, etc., all stand in support
Just today, Solana co-founder toly stated, 'We need a national XRP reserve.' This statement is also seen as a response to Trump's previous emphasis on 'establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin'.
At the end of November, CZ retweeted news stating that because XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US Securities and Exchange Commission may drop the Ripple case. This news originated from an interview with former CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, calling him a 'great CEO' and describing their interaction as 'highly collaborative', sparking speculation that Cardano and Ripple might explore establishing a strategic partnership.
From a data perspective: Market trading is active, with multiple data points hitting historical highs
From the perspective of market data, XRP is also one of the leaders.
In the Korean market, Upbit's trading volume increased by over 100% within a week, with cryptocurrencies including XRP being the biggest contributors. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far exceeding Bitcoin's trading volume of $30.1 billion.
In terms of price, XRP briefly broke through 2.29 USDT today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
In addition, in terms of contract data, according to Coinglass data, the total open interest of XRP futures contracts across the network is 1.739 billion ETH, approximately $4.051 billion, setting a historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, Bybit's XRP contract open interest is 548 million XRP (approximately $1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP broke through $2, its 24-hour trading volume also exceeded $25 billion, currently reaching $25,338,798,676, with a trading volume to market cap ratio of 18.4%, indicating a high trading activity relative to its market cap.
It is worth mentioning that, influenced by various favorable news, posts related to XRP on X platform have reached as high as 480,000, even far exceeding the content related to the meme-attribute DOGE.
X platform content index one
If all goes well, the XRP ETF may become the 'third cryptocurrency ETF' in the US market after BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: What is the future direction of Ripple and XRP?
As XRP's market value once returned to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, this 6-year 'first case of crypto regulation' originating in 2018 is about to reach its conclusion, and there are different opinions in the market regarding the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of Japan's major financial services institution SBI Holdings, stated that once the SEC issue is resolved, Ripple should prepare for an IPO as soon as possible. (Odaily Planet Daily note: It is understood that SBI Holdings has been cooperating with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovation. Kitao is a core figure in the Ripple-SBI collaboration and joined the Ripple board in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017 when he predicted XRP as the global standard for digital currencies, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs, and scalability.) Although such proposals had previously been shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, it can also be seen as one of the possible avenues for Ripple's future.
After all, with the further improvement of the cryptocurrency regulatory environment, more 'cryptocurrency concept stocks' may land on the US stock market. At that time, Ripple and XRP may usher in another wave of development peaks.
