Master Chen discusses hot topics:
First, let's talk about the morning news: The Japanese DMM cryptocurrency exchange is about to be liquidated, which has caused some friends to feel a bearish panic. But Master Chen wants to tell everyone that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to 80,000 or 70,000 is always lower than the probability of rising to 110,000.
Especially at the moment when you see the monthly line about to start - the next big bullish candle is already in sight. Yes, 4-5 consecutive bullish candles, is that not normal? This is just the market gathering strength.
Looking back at the last bull market, Bitcoin almost broke 70,000, and many people thought it was going to crash. But from 36000 to 70,000, everyone should remember: the starting point of this bull market may be around 15600, lifting the base 4 times higher. Don't just focus on the number '100,000' - for this bull market, 100k is just a new milestone, not worth making a fuss over.
Next, let's talk about the optimistic expectations for the 'bull market in the next three years': Some bloggers always think that a Republican administration can bring endless bull markets, but I dare to bet that the bull market cycles you see will far exceed three years.
If you want to be 'consistently stable' in a bull market, you need to first see that Bitcoin has a strict bear-bull cycle, with each bull market generally lasting 12-16 months, 16 months being the extreme. Don't fixate on an 'eternal bull market'; trading spot for half a year may end with the market reverting to its original state.
Speaking of the future large cycle - the next Bitcoin halving date is April 17, 2028. Looking ahead from this point, after April 2026, a bear market cycle may begin, so everyone can remember this node and start preparing slowly.
Lastly, regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, please rest assured that by the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve will definitely announce the timeline for halting interest rate cuts in 2026, or even starting to raise rates. In this way, the market's liquidity will gradually tighten, which is not friendly for the bulls.
Today is the second day of December, still in the bull market phase. I never consider myself very smart; in fact, all I can do is stand in an 'environment that is comparatively easy to succeed in.' Ultimately, the market will humble everyone. If this is your first time experiencing such a cycle, I can only tell you that the tuition fee for the market is not cheap.
Also, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book early Wednesday morning may trigger a short-term retracement, so Bitcoin may drop to around 93,800. If this retracement occurs, congratulations, you can boldly follow Master Chen's mid-term bottom-fishing plan.
Remember, there are often short-term declines on the 4th and 5th of each month, which is a little rule that many seasoned traders like. So if the market drops significantly in the next few days, don't be afraid, just act decisively!
Master Chen on Trends:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 98750
Second resistance level: 98100
Support level reference:
First support level: 95700
Second support level: 95000
Today's suggestion:
If the first support can maintain short-term stability, then a rebound perspective can be sustained; however, this range may also be broken, so the best short-term entry point could be set near the second support level of 95K.
Additionally, the 120-day moving average can be regarded as a phase support to maintain the expectation of a rebound. As we have re-entered the high-pressure selling area, we expect to experience a certain range of consolidation, followed by a bottoming and an increased probability of a rebound.
12.2 Master Chen's Wave Strategy:
Long entry reference: light long positions in the 96000-95700 range; if it retraces to the 95300-95000 range, go long directly. Target: 97000-98100
Short entry reference: not applicable
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