Bitcoin and altcoins: Market outlook for December

Today we will discuss Bitcoin's trend in December and the short-term risks of altcoins. Bitcoin is expected to break through $100,000, and there may be a bigger breakthrough in December, while the surge of altcoins may be affected by Bitcoin's trend. Investors should be cautious of short-term adjustments in altcoins.

Bitcoin: Breakthrough $100,000, expected to break through $150,000 in December

Short-term adjustments and mid-term increases

Bitcoin showed some signs of weakness last week and even indicated a possible correction to $90,000. This correction signal mainly comes from a top divergence on the hourly chart. However, despite potential short-term adjustments, the overall market pattern remains very positive.

Currently, Bitcoin's price fluctuates between $98,000 and $100,000, with the key point for short-term trends being whether it can break through the high of $98,000. If successful, the target of breaking through $100,000 will become clearer. However, if it fails to break through and the price falls below $95,600, a significant correction may occur in the short term.

Historical patterns and future outlook for December

Historically, Bitcoin usually sees a significant increase in December during a bull market. Taking 2021 as an example, Bitcoin rose 28% in November and then further increased by 45% in December. Based on this pattern, if Bitcoin rises by 37% in October 2024, then the increase in December could reach 60%. In this case, breaking through $150,000 is not an impossible target.

From the current technical perspective, Bitcoin may first undergo a high-level adjustment, and after completing the correction, break through the previous high, further breaking through the $100,000 mark. The key support levels in this process include $95,700 and $90,000. We recommend that investors buy on dips near these key support levels and prepare for medium to long-term layouts.

Altcoins: Short-term surges are difficult to sustain, beware of capital draining

Risks after the surge of altcoins

In the past two days, some altcoins have experienced consecutive surges, particularly projects like Dogecoin (DOGE), which have seen significant increases. For example, we recommended Dogecoin in our community when the price was around $0.414, and we set a target price of $0.452, which was indeed reached.

However, it is important to note that the current surge of altcoins does not mean they can sustain their increases. If Bitcoin successfully breaks through $100,000, its flow of funds will primarily concentrate on Bitcoin, which may have a draining effect on altcoins. Even strong performers in the short term, like Dogecoin, may struggle to escape this risk. Therefore, investors should make timely adjustments to avoid falling into the trap of capital return due to the surge of altcoins.

The rotation of altcoins is accelerating, and investors need to respond flexibly.

The current altcoin market shows a clear short-term rotation characteristic. Based on the cycle of 2021, altcoins typically experience 2 to 3 weeks of rising cycles, but now this cycle has been shortened to 2 to 3 days. Therefore, even if you have profited from a surge in an altcoin, it is advisable to take profits in a timely manner to avoid missing the best exit opportunity.

For those who still hold altcoins, the best strategy right now is to transfer some funds back to Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin's current medium to long-term pattern remains bullish, there is significant potential for a breakthrough in December. By adjusting positions, investors can better grasp Bitcoin's main bullish trend.

Ethereum: Keeping pace with Bitcoin

The independence and challenges of Ethereum

Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a relatively strong position, having risen more than 100 points after breaking $3,600 in the short term. However, closely tied to Bitcoin's trend, ETH's performance is also influenced by Bitcoin's movements. If Bitcoin experiences a correction, ETH may face risks of insufficient upward momentum. Only when Bitcoin adjusts can ETH truly develop its own independent trend.

The leading role of altcoins

As the leader of altcoins, ETH's performance directly affects the entire altcoin market. If ETH can continue to rise and synchronize with Bitcoin, it may drive more altcoins to develop their own independent trends. However, the current market has not entered a frenzy cycle for altcoins, so investors should be cautious about the short-term increase of altcoins.

In summary: Bitcoin dominates the market, altcoins face adjustments.

In summary, Bitcoin is expected to break through $150,000 in December, but may face some adjustments in the short term. Investors should pay attention to Bitcoin's key support levels, buy on dips, and prepare for medium to long-term layouts. At the same time, the short-term surge of altcoins may be influenced by the flow of funds towards Bitcoin, and investors should be cautious of the rapid rotation of altcoins and adjust their positions in a timely manner.

For altcoins like Ethereum, although there is some potential for growth, the market has not entered a frenzy cycle, so a flexible response strategy should be maintained. Overall, the safest investment strategy currently is to shift the focus back to Bitcoin to seize the main bullish trend in December.