Bitcoin Market Trends and Cycles
Price Expectations: Some are bearish on Bitcoin, predicting it will drop to 80,000 or 70,000, but in reality, it is more likely to rise to 120,000, with a probability more than double that of dropping below 80,000. A large bullish candle is about to be triggered on the monthly chart, and it is normal to see 4-5 consecutive monthly bullish candles at this stage.
Price Outlook: Referring to the logic of the last bull market, this round's starting point is elevated, and 100,000 is just a new milestone in this bull market. By the end of next year, conservatively, there is still a rising space of 30,000 to 50,000 points above 100,000.
Bull Market Cycle Perspective: I do not agree with some bloggers who believe that the next three years will all be bull markets just because the Republican Party is in power. Bitcoin has its own bull and bear cycles, with a typical bull cycle lasting around 12-16 months (16 months being the extreme). Prolonged battles in the spot market for more than six months can easily revert to previous levels. The next halving is on April 17, 2028, which suggests that a bear market cycle will begin after April 2026.
Federal Reserve Expectations: It is expected that by the end of next year, the Federal Reserve will announce a timetable for stopping interest rate cuts and moving to rate hikes in 2026.
