In the blink of an eye, we have arrived at the last month of 2024—December. This November was historic. In November, BTC completely made a decisive right-side breakout. BTC opened at 70.6k, reached a high of 99.6k, a low of 66.8k, and closed at 96.6k. A large bullish candle surged through the heavens. Clearly, it was a decisive breakthrough. The so-called 'decisive' means that this level of breakout will completely shatter the 'most bearish fantasy' of BTC returning to 25k. Currently, Bitcoin is undergoing a washout, and from a 4-hour perspective, a bullish flag is forming with no signs of weakening. After reaching a new high on November 21, Bitcoin has been oscillating and has not broken through the psychological barrier of 100k. Many people are not optimistic about December; I personally expect that after mid-December, specifically after December 11, we might see new highs followed by about ten days of oscillation.
Ethereum's monthly chart shows a clear trend; I give up on the idea of shorting. The altcoin market has not yet ended; one can continue to hold coins and wait for a rise. In recent years, the probability of cryptocurrency fluctuations in December is evenly split at 50%. Ethereum has the Pectra upgrade scheduled for the first quarter of next year, so accumulating Ethereum at lower prices is the way to go.
Next, let's review the altcoin bull market in November. The main profits came from: 1. SEC concept coins led by $XRP and $XLM; Trump’s election and Gary’s departure; 2. Solana concept coins led by $DRIFT; 3. Ethereum concept coins led by $PUFFER; Ethereum's exchange rate reversal; 4. Base concept coins led by $VIRTUAL; base data combined with aimeme.
All of the above are strong logical points and were filtered through my trend system. It can be seen that I am quite good at trading strong logical sectors after a surge and capturing the opportunities, which is my comfort zone. The targets that either made less profit or none at all can be divided into two categories: 1. The $THE$ACT$HYPE that surged at the opening, my system for medium-term trend trading could not capture it, and I did not have a deep understanding of these projects beforehand; I was even sleeping at the opening. If it happens again, I still won't be able to profit, and I need to enhance monitoring of new coins at their opening. 2. On-chain projects led by $ai16z that previously took several waves of new coin bonuses from Bybit, mainly optimizing CEX monitoring. The monitoring and energy in the DEX area have fallen a lot, and I am currently optimizing DEX monitoring. I do not plan to engage in PVP, focusing only on deterministic trades with a market cap of over 10M; I am scared of losing in bear market PVP. In December, I will still focus on doing well in trades within my comfort zone and put some energy into monitoring new coins and DEX. Looking back, the SEC sector is the most certain and has the strongest sustainability, accommodating the most capital. There will surely be similar strong sector effects in the future, and I still don't like to engage in trades that are finished in a day; it requires high concentration and is too exhausting.
Finally, a few scattered points:
1. BTC ecosystem: Western runes + inscriptions led by the big mom.
2. The NFT market is warming up; the old forces that are not willing to be lonely may build a new NFT leader.
3. In my view, Base and Sui can be played or not played because the same amount of effort put into the previous sectors can yield more profits.
Above, I wish everyone great profits in December.
