The approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF not only led to a surge in Bitcoin's price but also filled the market with anticipation for this bull market's progress. Currently, Bitcoin is just a step away from the $100,000 mark, but there are many questions in the market: Will the peak season for competing coins return? Or has the $100,000 price point already marked the peak of this bull market? This article will analyze the current market trends based on data from the past four years and explore which stage we are currently in.

1. Bitcoin's Solo Surge: The ‘Differentiation’ of the Bull Market

Since the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF, Bitcoin's price has surged and dominated the overall market's rise. However, this bull market still seems to be characterized by 'Bitcoin's solo surge'; Bitcoin's market share continues to rise, without the strong rebounds of other competing coins as seen in the past. This situation leads us to ponder: Will the peak season for competing coins return? Or will Bitcoin remain the sole protagonist of this bull market?

2. Bitcoin's Peak Forecast: Reflection of Funding Rates

Funding rates have consistently been one of the most intuitive and critical indicators in the market. By reviewing data from 2021, we find that when funding rates reach extreme values, it often signals a peak in prices. During that bull market, three extreme funding rates occurred in early January, mid-February, and mid-April, corresponding to prices of $40,000, $45,000, and $60,000 respectively.

However, it is important to note that not every peak in funding rates signifies the end of a bull market. For example, from the end of 2023 to April 2024, although Bitcoin's price reached an all-time high, the funding rate did not exceed 0.1%, indicating relative calm in the market.

3. Active Buy Transaction Volume: The Market's 'Contrarian Indicator' and 'Leading Indicator'

Active buy transaction volume is another indicator worth noting. By reviewing 2021 data, we find that active buy transaction volume is usually a 'contrarian indicator' for the market, meaning its peaks often occur after price peaks. Conversely, when prices fall, active buy transaction volume tends to rise rapidly, reflecting a contrarian sentiment in the market.

However, by 2024, there has been a noticeable change in active buy transaction volume, with its volatility becoming more pronounced and more synchronized with price peaks. This allows us to use it as an effective leading indicator to observe market trends.

4. Circulating Market Value of Stablecoins: The Invisible Force Driving the Market

The circulating market value of stablecoins is often overlooked, yet it plays a crucial role in market cycles. From 2021 to 2023, the issuance of stablecoin Tether (USDT) has shown increasing correlation with market capital flow. Particularly in 2021, the issuance of stablecoins accelerated the development of the bull market, aided by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy.

However, the circulating market value of stablecoins does not always directly reflect the market's short-term fluctuations. By zooming out to the annual level, we can see its relative correlation with market trends.

5. Bitcoin Price and Competing Coins' Market Share: When Will the Peak Season for Competing Coins Return?

During the process of Bitcoin's price skyrocketing, the market share of competing coins has not shown the same drastic fluctuations as in the past. Looking back at the market in 2021, when Bitcoin started to rise, the market share of competing coins sharply declined. However, as Bitcoin's price increased, the market share of competing coins also rebounded.

Currently, although Bitcoin has completed several rallies, the decline in the market share of competing coins has not quickly reversed. Data shows that Bitcoin's market share was at a low of 30% in early 2021, reaching 40% by mid-February 2021. Currently, Bitcoin's market share is approximately 46%, not far from the most recent rally point.

6. Market Activity: Have We Reached the Peak?

According to data from October to November 2024, Binance's trading volume indicates a highly active market. In the past 30 days, Binance's trading volume has been 10% higher than Nasdaq's, and this data has a direct correlation with market peaks. In terms of Bitcoin contract trading volume, November 12, 2024, recorded the fourth highest volume in four years; does this imply that the market is approaching its peak?

Looking back at the past four years of data, we can see that only three times did the trading volume exceed $30 billion, and the first two occurrences happened near market peaks.

7. Conclusion: We Are in the ‘Transitional Phase’ of the Bull Market

Overall, the current market is in a transitional phase, with strong bullish momentum and signs of market overheating. Although Bitcoin's price continues to rise, the performance of various indicators shows that the market is not yet at its peak. Funding rates, active buy transaction volume, and circulating market value of stablecoins indicate that the market is about to enter a correction, but the peak season for competing coins has not fully returned, and there are still variables in the market.

Therefore, for investors, how to maintain rationality in this bull market and capture the best entry and exit opportunities will be an important challenge in the coming months.
Market trends are unpredictable, opportunities are fleeting. By closely monitoring every subtle change and seizing the opportunities that belong to oneself, one can remain undefeated amidst the fluctuations of the market. Today, are you ready? Let's look forward to the wonderful performance of the market together!
#BTC☀ #比特币打破感恩节魔咒 #山寨季來了？ #山寨币走势展望 #市场回暖新机遇 $BTC $ETH $SOL