Since BTC peaked at 99,600, it has entered a phase of downward correction. Currently, it is once again showing a rising trend, causing the market's extreme greed to explode in an instant. I believe many people are still waiting for the arrival of 100,000, though it is just a step away, it feels like a world apart!
Indeed, being infinitely close to 100,000 BTC is much more tempting than actually reaching 100,000. Under the push of such emotions, only a crash down can yield the greatest profit, but ultimately someone has to take over, and this BTC, which has not yet reached 100,000 but is very close, seems to be the most enticing bait, prompting everyone to eagerly buy in.
Let’s imagine that the extreme value for BTC in this cycle is 146,000, which is an ideal limit derived by some institution based on the current savings asset situation. If BTC reaches 100,000, it will trigger selling pressure, and a considerable number of people will turn to shorting. At this time, the profits of the operators will not only be shared by the rising bulls but also be devoured by the bears. Such a situation will inevitably prevent operators from making such a choice. Moreover, if they want to blow up the shorts, there is a lack of sufficient space above.
Therefore, capital will inevitably treat the previous high of 99,600 as bait, creating a rising trend again to attract funds to take over, and then it will be a crash down to reap substantial profits.
One point worth noting is that Trump will take office in January next year, and after taking office, there will inevitably be a series of favorable policies. Therefore, I have great confidence in breaking 120,000 in January next year. Thus, before the next more intense rise comes, there will definitely be a deep correction. After all, jumping from 67,000 to 130,000 in one go and maintaining that rise for nearly half a year is highly unrealistic. How should profits be extracted in between? Therefore, this rise cannot break through 100,000. Once it breaks, in order to trigger the sell orders at 100,000, it will inevitably need to rise to around 120,000, which will leave no space for rises or adjustment time in January next year.
In summary, my view is that during this enticing rise, one should gradually establish short positions and sell at key resistance levels, anticipating a significant drop to come. It is expected to fall between 73,000 and 80,000, after which the next round of bull market rises can begin.
Is the approaching 100,000 BTC a breakthrough dawn or a volatile trap?
