What stage of the cycle is the meme market in today?

Let's first take a look at the current user data of Pump Fun. It can be checked on dune. Pump Fun currently has about 150,000 daily active wallets. In the past two weeks, when Solana Meme was the hottest, it reached a maximum of 200,000 daily active wallets. If we divide it by the total number of monthly active users of Phantom that we talked about before to calculate the approximate penetration rate, Pump Fun's daily active users currently account for 2.9% of Phantom's user base. So considering only the number of users of Phantom's wallet, Pump Fun is far from being mass penetrated.

In addition to looking at the number of participants in the internal market game of pump fun, we can also look at the number of holders of the largest meme coins to roughly understand the number of players on the chain (many addresses are fake, so the actual result will be less, my personal judgment is that the number of addresses/number of people is at least 2-3 times), currently WIF has 190,000 wallets, Popcat has 110,000, Bonk has 11,000, PEPE has 270,000, and SPX has 25,000 (this exposes whether the SPX that Murad has been shouting about is really a powerful community)

So whether you look at the user data of Pump fun or the wallet data of the top blue chip meme, you will roughly get a number within 200,000-300,000, so the penetration rate of Meme for users who already have wallets on the chain is between 3-5%. There are still millions of users who have been on the chain who have not been penetrated by meme, which is 20-30 times the current size of Meme users.

If we assume that Meme will infiltrate some of the users who originally traded in the exchange to the chain, then the number we need to refer to is the total number of crypto users in the world, 500-600 million, which means that a 1% penetration rate can bring 20-30 times the incremental users, and 10% is 200-300 times.

And if we think that Meme is the real killer application of Web3 and will become the streaming media of the new era, the Douyin of web3, we can look at the data of Douyin in November 2024, 700 million daily active users, which is 2000-3000 times the total number of meme players in the world.

This is the best era for crypto entrepreneurs and investors.

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