Let me predict the top price of Bitcoin in this round of passing bull market

The price of Bitcoin is essentially cognitive and psychological, and has nothing to do with the so-called fundamentals. Once this round breaks through people's psychological defenses, the price has no upper limit and is likely to reach hundreds of thousands of dollars per coin.

The top of the last bull market was around 70,000, so a few months ago everyone thought that 60,000 Bitcoin was very expensive, and Bitcoin also consolidated in the range of 60,000 to 70,000 for a long time. The reason is that it is close to the top of the last bull market, which is the psychological price of people.

Now that the price has broken through 90,000, the new leeks who entered the market think that 50,000-60,000 is very cheap, and regret not buying more in the past few months. Then the bottom of this round of bears is about 50,000-60,000, because people who entered the market at 50,000-60,000 think that this price is low, and they can definitely make money if they hold it, so there is no need to sell it. Just like the top of the last round of bulls was 17,000, and the bottom of the last round of bears was 16,000, which is determined by people's psychology.

So what is the top of this round of bulls? It depends on how crazy people are who want to enter the market and how many people want to get off the bus. If most people recognize that they hold Bitcoin for more than one cycle, they will hardly lose money. Bitcoin held for a long time is not a risky asset at all. Only short-term speculation will lose money. Those who DCA Bitcoin in the bear market will earn 3 times the profit in 2 years. This is the most cost-effective investment in the world. Then anyone who sells Bitcoin at any time is a fool. Once this point is reached, the supply of Bitcoin in the market will decrease sharply, and buying will drive the price to break through people's psychological upper line repeatedly, and finally reach a crazy bull top.

The end of the bull top is generally a black swan event with a shift in market sentiment. If the bottom of the next round of bear market is around 50,000, then the top of this round of bull market, I expect it to be 200,000 US dollars. After reaching the top, it will fall back to 50,000 in one or two years, and then slowly climb and wait for the next bull market. . .