Societe Generale: The Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts will lead to a decrease in short-term rates, while tariffs and fiscal deficits will push up long-term rates.

CoinVoice has recently learned that, according to Jin Shi reports, Societe Generale predicts that by the end of 2025, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will rise to 4.5%, while the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds will drop to 3.5%.

The reason is that the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts will lower short-term rates, but will also stimulate the economy and increase the fiscal deficit, leading to increased demand for long-term government bonds, which will cause long-term yields to rise.

Additionally, Trump's tariff plan may raise inflation expectations, and as the U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of government bonds to address the fiscal deficit, this will also push up yields. [Original link]