Chatting on the weekend, discussing the various topics from this week's night report.
Last night, many people asked why I said the comprehensive quality of life for civil servants in Zhejiang is the ceiling. Firstly, it is definitely because of good income and benefits. There are disparities among different counties in Zhejiang, but it's not a problem for newly graduated clerks to earn an average of 150,000 to 200,000. Those with work experience and job levels can easily earn over 250,000, and public security and law enforcement have additional allowances of 30,000 to 50,000. Local governments with good finances also have bonuses; a friend from Ningbo at the department level once told me that he takes home nearly 400,000 a year.
Many people say that Zhejiang has many bosses and rich people. While there are indeed a considerable number, the majority of ordinary citizens are still workers and office employees, with their incomes generally in the range of 60,000 to 120,000, which is significantly lower than that of civil servants.
In addition, civil servants have good benefits, a respectable identity, and social status, placing them at the top of the food chain in the matchmaking market. Once both spouses are civil servants, or one is in a public institution or bank, the family can definitely join the local middle class. There is no 996, no high-intensity competition, no middle-aged decline, and no unemployment anxiety; they can work diligently until retirement.
I have over ten high school classmates who stayed in Linhai, all of whom are civil servants or in public institutions. I meet with them once a year, and I can clearly feel that their quality of life is very happy.
Of course, because the benefits are good, the civil service examination attracts the elite of the younger generation every year. The local governments at all levels in Zhejiang are both open-minded and efficient, which has a good reputation nationwide, creating a virtuous cycle.
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After hesitating for a moment, I decided to add another case; there is something that has been on my mind for nearly 20 years.
When I was young, I had a friend back home. After graduating, she got a job at a local public utility. My first job in Beijing had a monthly salary of 3,500, which was already not low in 2005. As a result, her salary for the first month was 5,000, and with bonuses, her total income for the first year was nearly 100,000.
I still remember the shock I felt when she told me her salary was 5,000 on QQ; it made me feel suffocated. The rent in Beijing is 3,500, and 5,000 back home is simply incomparable. It really caused me a huge psychological blow as a young person. To be honest, if I could get into that unit, I wouldn't have come to Beijing.
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Last night, I wrote about the expected returns from long-term investment in A-shares, and many readers responded saying it felt like the sky was falling. It turns out that even with a time machine cheat, the annualized return is only 6%. Upon knowing the truth, tears almost flowed down. Actually, later a reader corrected me, saying that the CSI 300 index does not include annual cash dividends, which accounts for about 2% of the returns. So theoretically, the cheating purchase point for the CSI 300 yields an annualized return of 8%, with normal expectations being an annualized 3-5%, slightly better, but limited.
Some people also asked me about the returns on dollar-cost averaging in US stocks; I won't calculate that. I previously posted a chart of the annual returns since the S&P 500 was established, and I will update the data and post it again today.
The US stock market in the 1930s was also quite difficult, but after participating in World War II in 1941, it initiated an 80-year bull market, encountering only two major setbacks in 1999 and 2008.
If you were unfortunate enough to buy at the peak in 1999, you would only be able to break even by 2007. However, you would then encounter the crash in 2008, and it wouldn't be until 2013 that you could climb out of the pit. So, in the worst-case scenario, you might not make any money during those 14 years from 1999 to 2013.
But as long as you dare to buy the dip when the US stock market is falling, there will always be substantial returns; their recovery ability is very strong. Currently, the US stock market has reached a high valuation range after two consecutive years of significant gains, and many people, including Buffett, have chosen to reduce their positions for risk aversion. It might be wise to wait for the next wave of adjustments to get back in.
The S&P 500 does not rise as much as the NASDAQ 100 in a bull market, but its overall trend is more stable and smoother.
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This week, there is also a continuing hot topic about two former gymnasts arguing on Douyin.
There are quite a few supporters and opponents of Wu Liufang; I think this is purely personal preference and does not need to be forcibly unified. What I find interesting about this matter is that most of the public subconsciously views athletes in planned sports as part of the system. When facing retired athletes, they have applied similar moral standards to Wu Liufang as they would to civil servants, leading them to feel that performing in borderline dance is inappropriate.
But is Wu Liufang still considered a person within the system now? I am not clear about the benefits for retired elite gymnasts, but it is evident that she has given up on that path. She signed a contract with an MCN company and became a professional streamer, which seems unrelated to the system.
She said that her purpose in doing live streaming is to change her fate, which is a euphemistic way of saying that it has been difficult to earn money in her previous profession, and she wants to take a bite of the internet economy. I searched for her information; after being injured and retiring, she studied for four years at Beijing Sport University, and then worked at a training company co-founded by retired athletes. However, she encountered the pandemic and the company closed down, so her previous years were presumably quite difficult.
Let's have a bit more tolerance and understanding; that's all for tonight's chat.
