Societe Generale: The Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts will lead to a decrease in short-term rates, while tariffs and fiscal deficits will push up long-term rates

BlockBeats news, November 30, Societe Generale predicts that by the end of 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will drop to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates, which will reduce short-term rates, but will also increase long-term Treasury demand through economic stimulus and increased fiscal deficits, leading to a rise in long-term yields. Additionally, Trump's tariff plan may raise inflation expectations, and the U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bonds to address the fiscal deficit, all of which will push up yields. (Jin Ten)