The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only
Palm Oil
Trading logic: Southeast Asia has entered a production reduction cycle. SPPOMA high-frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production continues to decline month-on-month; import profits are still inverted, and the loss margin continues to expand; domestic palm oil inventories are declining; there are fewer shipping purchases in the first quarter of next year; the Indonesian government has repeatedly emphasized the mandatory implementation of the B40 blending plan
Risk factors: Malaysian palm oil exports fell month-on-month; sowing in South America went smoothly, and soybean weather speculation momentum was insufficient; the market was worried that the Trump administration might cancel the tax credit policy for the biofuel industry, and CBOT soybean oil fell sharply
Events to Watch: Changes in weather in producing areas; changes in palm oil production, exports, and inventory; changes in domestic palm oil inventory and import profits; competitive oil prices; Indonesia's export policies; changes in biofuel industry-related policies in Indonesia and the US.
Shanghai Zinc
Trading Logic: Zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline, and industry profits have turned negative; since August, domestic zinc monthly production has shown negative growth year-on-year; spot premiums are relatively high; warehouse receipts are low, and positions are significantly higher than warehouse receipts; some zinc mines in northern China will have seasonal shutdowns in the fourth quarter; weekly zinc ingot inventory is decreasing compared to the previous period
Risk Factors: High-level US dollar pressure; the Federal Reserve's November meeting minutes show that 'multiple' policymakers support a more gradual interest rate cut, and for the first time mentioned the possibility of pausing actions when discussing decision-making risks.
Events to Watch: Changes in zinc concentrate processing fees; domestic zinc ingots and LME zinc inventory; changes in warehouse receipts; downstream operating rates; shutdown and production reduction conditions in smelting plants; changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, etc.
Iron Ore
Trading Logic: This week, steel and iron ore transactions increased, higher than last week's average; strong steel exports
Risk Factors: US tariffs; production and apparent demand for steel varieties are declining
Events to Watch: The political bureau meeting in early December and the central economic work conference in mid-December; changes in steel output and demand; changes in port iron ore inventory; changes in pig iron production, etc.
Soda Ash
Trading Logic: Soda ash manufacturers' inventory has accumulated again, returning to historically high levels; some facilities have restarted maintenance, and supply has somewhat recovered; downstream purchases are not significant, and the replenishment effort is relatively weak;
Risk Factors: Both ammonia-soda and allied alkaline methods of soda ash production are in a loss state; transportation capacity in the northwest region has decreased, and in some areas, supply is slightly tight
Events to Watch: Changes in soda ash manufacturers' inventory and operating rates; changes in soda ash profits; changes in macro policy sentiment; maintenance and shutdown news; purchasing and pricing conditions of downstream enterprises, etc.
Rubber
Trading Logic: The domestic market is gradually entering a cutting suspension period, and domestic natural rubber production will show a seasonal decline; continuous rainfall in southern Thailand keeps raw material prices firm; macroeconomic expectations are improving towards the end of the year; the inventory accumulation trend in Qingdao rubber warehouses has temporarily slowed down
Risk Factors: Weak downstream product order demand, actual transactions are scarce, resistant to high prices; the tire market is facing seasonal off-peak; rubber import volumes continue to rise
Events to Watch: Changes in Qingdao rubber inventory; changes in tire market demand; changes in domestic and foreign rubber production, changes in rubber import volumes; changes in macro policy sentiment; changes in weather in major producing areas, etc.
Glass
Trading Logic: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has accumulated month-on-month; downstream purchases are mainly based on just-in-time needs, and enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood; one previously ignited production line has started producing glass, and this week's glass production continues to increase; real estate sales have declined
Risk Factors: This week, glass companies' profits have declined across the board
Events to Watch: Supply-side cold repair situations, substantial recovery in the real estate sector; changes in glass inventory, production, and enterprise profits, etc.
Ocean Freight Europe Line
Trading Logic: The SCFIS European line index's rate of increase continues to decline; European macroeconomic data shows weakness, and the pace of replenishment in Europe and the US continues to slow down; a significant breakthrough in geopolitical situations, and the market sees hope for shipping lines returning to the Red Sea
Risk Factors: Early to mid-December is the traditional peak shipping season in the maritime market; the three major alliances of 10 shipping companies have all begun to support prices in December
Events to Watch: Maersk's freight rate adjustment status; geopolitical situations in the Middle East; European macroeconomic data; shipping companies' price increase situations; ship loading rates and booking demand, etc.
Disclaimer
The information in this article is sourced from publicly available materials. This article strives for accurate and reliable information, but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, and any investment based on it is at one's own risk.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
