An article recently published by the authoritative BITCOIN magazine in the currency circle, everyone wants to know whether this round of Bitcoin's rise can continue? This article provides a perspective for judgment and observation, that is, to study whether this round of rise is driven by retail investors' FOMO emotions? If so, it is very likely that it is now in the late stage of the surge, after all, retail investors who rush into the market are basically here to be cut. If not, that is to say, this round of rise is driven by large investors or institutions, then this round of rise is likely to be in the early stages. As for the conclusion of the article, I can also tell you directly that the article believes that it is the latter, so everyone can rest assured.
First of all, the easiest way to judge whether retail investors have entered the market is to look at the number of newly created Bitcoin addresses. As you can see, the more newly created addresses there are, the more retail investors are rushing into the market. This is usually the peak of the Bitcoin price, right? Although the growth of new addresses in recent months has shown signs of a moderate recovery, it is not as strong as expected, right? Compared with the rise of ETFs last year, the number of new addresses in a single day reached 791,000, which is totally incomparable, right?
Secondly, another way to judge the FOMO entry of retail investors is to check the trend of Google searches. Although the number of Bitcoin searches has increased in the past month, it is still far below the peak levels in 2021 and 2017. This shows that retail investors' interest in Bitcoin is picking up, but it has not yet reached the frenzy held by the FOMO-driven market.
Third, the magazine article also noted that in the previous bull markets of Bitcoin, we can see that a large amount of funds flowed out from long-term holders to new investors, which also drove the subsequent price increases. The previous bull markets were still based on high-leverage transactions such as futures contracts. But this time, the flow of funds from long-term holders to new investors is still relatively slight, and a key feature is that this rise is driven by spot, not contract leverage, so this rise is likely to be more stable and more resilient, because fewer investors will face the risk of forced liquidation.
Finally, who is driving this rise in the pie? You can look at the picture. Although the number of retail addresses has not increased significantly, you can see that the addresses of large households or institutions holding at least 100 pieces of the pie are increasing. , these wallets with large holdings have added tens of thousands of new coins in the past few weeks, with a total value reaching billions of dollars. This increase shows that the largest investors in the pie are confident about current price levels, and even though the pie is already close to record highs, they still believe there is room for further gains.
So to sum up, this round of rebound may still be in its early stages, long-term investors still maintain confidence, whales are accumulating, and the leverage level of the bitcoin market is still moderate. These are all signs of a healthy and sustainable rebound. As this round of bull market progresses, the market structure shows that there may be a larger wave of retail investors in the future. By that time, it is likely that this round of rebound will be over. Do you agree with this view?
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