$BTC
With the decline of Bitcoin's market share and the gradual warming of market sentiment, we believe that a new round of "altcoin season" may be coming. Judging from historical data and current market performance, the outbreak of altcoins often occurs in the middle and late stages of the bull market, accompanied by a price repair cycle after Bitcoin halving. The arrival of this altcoin season may bring rich returns to investors, but risk control and track selection are equally important.
1. Key signals for the arrival of the altcoin season
1. Declining Bitcoin dominance
Recently, Bitcoin's market share (BTC Dominance) has shown signs of weakness from its rising wedge, which is often seen as a precursor to the altcoin season. 360Trader pointed out that the total crypto market value (TOTAL3) excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum is testing key resistance levels, which may trigger a comprehensive rise in altcoins once they are broken.
2. The impact of Bitcoin halving cycle
According to historical rules, Bitcoin halving usually lays the foundation for the altcoin season. Seven months after the halving, the price of Bitcoin tends to stabilize, and market funds may gradually flow into altcoins. This Bitcoin halving will occur in April 2024, so it is expected that the climax of the altcoin season may occur from November 2024 to early 2025.
3. ETH exchange rate rebound and ETH price breakthrough
The current ETH/BTC exchange rate has rebounded from 0.0318 to above 0.038, and the ETH price has also exceeded 3600, which is also considered an important sign of the arrival of the altcoin season.