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Macro News

1. Australian Federal Reserve Chairman Bullock said that core inflation is too high and it is not appropriate to cut interest rates in the near future; as long as inflation continues to develop along a gradually slowing track, it is possible to consider cutting interest rates at some point in the future. The US tariff policy will not affect Australia's inflation in the next six months.

2. Trump said that he would impose additional tariffs on China after taking office. He Yadong, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, responded that China's position of opposing unilateral tariff increases is consistent. The United States should abide by the rules of the World Trade Organization and work with China in accordance with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation to jointly promote the stable and sustainable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.

3. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the ATACMS strikes on Russia would cause less damage. The choice of weapons for retaliation depends on the degree of damage (to Russia by US missiles). If Ukraine becomes a nuclear power, Russia will use all means of destruction. Russia is willing to engage in dialogue with the United States.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices closed slightly higher, with the January 2025 contract of U.S. crude up 0.23% to $68.88 per barrel. The January 2025 contract of Brent crude up 0.54% to $72.69 per barrel.

2. COMEX gold futures closed down 0.12% at $2,661.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed up 0.41% at $30.68 per ounce.

3. London base metals closed with mixed gains and losses, with LME copper futures down 0.37% at $8,987/ton, LME zinc futures down 2.68% at $3,047.5/ton, LME nickel futures up 1.49% at $16,120/ton, LME aluminum futures down 0.21% at $2,590/ton, LME tin futures up 1.16% at $28,275/ton and LME lead futures down 0.61% at $2,044/ton.

4. Domestic commodity futures closed mixed at night trading, with energy and chemical products showing divergent performances, butadiene rubber up 2.87%, No. 20 rubber up 1.54%, rubber up 1.27%, soda ash down 1.14%. Most black series rose. Agricultural products rose and fell, sugar up 1.86%, soybean oil up 1.24%, palm oil up 1.11%. Base metals rose and fell, Shanghai tin up 1.05%, Shanghai nickel up 1.01%, Shanghai copper down 0.16%, alumina down 1.07%, Shanghai zinc down 2.49%. Shanghai gold rose 0.04%, Shanghai silver up 0.22%.

Black hot news

​1. According to SMM, on November 28, according to news from the steel mill, a stainless steel plant in East China plans to reduce production by about 30,000 tons due to annual routine circuit maintenance and the weak stainless steel market.

2. Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that if China's steel production benefits from the stimulus plan and steel mills hope to increase exports before President-elect Trump takes office, the price of Australian high-quality coking coal may rise to $220 a ton by the end of the year.

3. According to Mysteel, as of the week of November 28, the demand for rebar turned from increasing to decreasing, the factory inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, the social inventory increased for the fifth consecutive week, and the output decreased for the second consecutive week. Among them, the output of rebar was 2.2788 million tons, a decrease of 59,400 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.54%.

4. Mysteel.com survey data shows that as of November 28, the inventory of steel billets of the same caliber in Tangshan’s main warehouses and ports was 989,300 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 18.62% from the same period last year.

5. This week, Mysteel Coal and Coke Division investigated the profitability of 30 independent coking plants across the country. The national average profit per ton of coke was 26 yuan/ton; the average profit per ton of coke in Shanxi was 36 yuan/ton, the average profit per ton of coke in Shandong was 72 yuan/ton, the average profit per ton of coke in Inner Mongolia was -48 yuan/ton, and the average profit per ton of coke in Hebei was 58 yuan/ton.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. According to the plantations in the producing areas, palm oil production in Malaysia has entered a period of reduced production since November. According to the data from the South Malaysia Palm Oil Association, the palm oil production in South Malaysia from November 1 to 25 decreased by 3.24% month-on-month. It is expected that the local palm oil production in November will decrease by 5% month-on-month. Overall, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to continue to decline by the end of November to about 1.8 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 50,000 to 100,000 tons.

2. Data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that as of the week of November 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 60, compared with 52 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at the port was 2.3245 million tons, compared with 1.9016 million tons the previous week.

3.Mysteel agricultural product data shows that as of November 27, 2024, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 8.4622 million tons, a decrease of 73,200 tons from the previous week, and the progress of warehouse delivery was significantly faster than the same period last year.

4. CONAB, the national commodity supply company under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, said that Brazil's sugar production is expected to be 44 million tons in the 2024/25 crushing season, and the survey in August this year estimated it to be 45.9963 million tons. Brazil's sugarcane production is expected to be 678.67 million tons in the 2024/25 crushing season, and the survey in August this year estimated it to be 689.8 million tons.

5. Brazil's Paraná State Rural Economy Department (Deral) released a monthly forecast on Thursday showing that Paraná's soybean production in 2024/25 is expected to be 22.3 million tons, lower than the 22.4 million tons estimated last month. If the forecast is fulfilled, the output will still be a record high, comparable to the output in 2022/23. The decline in the production forecast is due to dry weather in the northwestern part of the state that affected some crops.

6. The latest USDA drought report shows that as of the week of November 26, about 47% of the soybean planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 53% in the previous week and 47% in the same period last year. About 52% of the corn planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 59% in the previous week and 44% in the same period last year. About 17% of the cotton planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 19% in the previous week and 45% in the same period last year.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of November 28, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 1.6558 million tons, an increase of 52,700 tons (3.29%) from the previous month, and an increase of 25,800 tons (1.58%) from Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 665,200 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons from the previous month, and heavy soda ash was 990,600 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous month.

2. The Indian Ministry of Finance is evaluating the abolition of the windfall profit tax, a source from the Indian federal government said on Thursday. The country's windfall profit tax, which was imposed in July 2022, is a special tax on domestic crude oil production after the rise in global crude oil prices, aimed at obtaining revenue from producers' windfall profits.

3. According to Longzhong Information, as of the week of November 28, the total inventory of sample float glass enterprises nationwide was 49.017 million TEUs, an increase of 591,000 TEUs, a month-on-month increase of 1.22% and a year-on-year increase of 30.01%. The discounted inventory days were 22.8 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period.

4. According to the Singapore Economic Development Board (ESG), Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased by 2.25 million barrels to a five-week high of 19.232 million barrels in the week ending November 27; Singapore's middle distillate oil inventories increased by 97,000 barrels to a seven-week high of 10.37 million barrels; Singapore's light distillate oil inventories decreased by 1.82 million barrels to a four-week low of 13.344 million barrels.

5. According to an unnamed OPEC representative, OPEC+ will postpone the online meeting on oil production originally scheduled for this Sunday to December 5 (next Thursday). The organization will discuss whether to continue to push forward the restoration of disrupted supply, starting with an increase of 180,000 barrels per day. Delegates said earlier this week that they had begun negotiations to postpone the move, which could be delayed for several months.

Metal Hot News

1. Morgan Stanley analysts said Australia's current lithium production cuts totaled about 37,700 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), but this had little impact on their forecast of market surpluses for this year and next. Morgan Stanley analysts predict LCE surpluses of 157,000 tonnes and 334,000 tonnes in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

2. According to Mysteel's survey this week: As of November 28, 2024, the total national alumina inventory is 3.762 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous period. Alumina continued to destock this week. Due to the unsmooth execution of long orders, some alumina plants had to purchase spot to supplement the delivery of long orders, and part of the delivery warehouse inventory was transferred to downstream factories.

3. As of November 28, Mysteel survey data showed that zinc ingot inventories in major markets across the country continued to decline, decreasing by 6,900 tons from November 25 to 84,600 tons.

Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Why is it said that natural rubber has limited room for short-term correction?

Zhonghui Futures analysis pointed out that with the end of the abnormal weather, the supply of natural rubber in the main producing areas is temporarily not restricted except for northern Indonesia. Even if the domestic producing areas gradually stopped harvesting in December, the proportion is small and the impact on the total volume is limited. The overall marginal change on the supply side is not large. From the demand side, after a slight increase in the start-up of domestic tire companies, they continue to usher in the double accumulation of finished products and raw materials. In the short term, the actual demand side may not contribute to growth. Zhonghui Futures analyst Su Rigalatu believes that in the short term, industrial products will fall again after a collective recovery. Under the macro expectation of a warmer end of the year, the main natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate around the 60-day line support. In the absence of other disturbances in the supply, if it can connect the low production season of the main producing areas around the world, the market will continue to fluctuate and pull up.

2. Rapid rise and fall! What happened to Shanghai zinc recently? ​

Yide Futures analysis pointed out that recently, due to the influx of funds, the Shanghai zinc position has surged. After a strong rise, the Shanghai zinc 2501 contract broke through the high of more than 26,000 yuan, a new high this year, and then fell sharply. The current rise in zinc prices is more affected by funds. This year, there have been many soft squeezes and inventory transfer games in the zinc near-month contract, and the current fundamentals are not particularly outstanding. In addition, the import window will be intermittently opened in mid-November. It is expected that the import volume of refined zinc in December may remain high. In the case that the supply supplement demand does not keep up further, the risk of zinc prices falling rapidly after rising is high. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and the callback is mainly long.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 9:30 on November 30, China's official manufacturing PMI, composite PMI, non-manufacturing PMI and steel PMI for November. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index released in October was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and rose for two consecutive months; the steel PMI recorded 54.6%, up 5.6 percentage points from the previous month, and rose for two consecutive months. After 19 months, the index returned to the expansion range, indicating that the steel industry has recovered rapidly in the short term. Pay attention to whether the steel PMI in November can expand further.

2. On November 30, ITS, Amspec and SGS will release the Malaysian palm oil export data from November 1 to 30. The current high price of palm oil has fallen back as the market expects weak demand for Malaysian palm oil exports. The main reason for limiting the decline is that palm oil has entered a production reduction cycle. Pay attention to the release of actual data.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data