Written by: Matti, Zee Prime Capital
Translated by: Yangz, Techub News
Translator's note: Whether you are a veteran who has experienced several cycles or a newcomer to the circle, you must be a little confused when facing the Web3 industry, which is almost always full of hot spots or "opportunities to get rich" after Trump's victory. Sometimes it is the new animal-based Memecoins that are popular because of bigwigs such as Musk and V God, and sometimes it is the thousand-fold myths created by various AI agents. Of course, there are also various good news that come one after another, such as the funds that continue to flow into the US Bitcoin spot ETF every day; major listed companies led by MicroStrategy continue or begin to build their own "Bitcoin strategic reserves"; and positive regulatory signals such as the Trump team considering the establishment of the first cryptocurrency policy-related position in the White House. All of these exude the atmosphere of a bull market, and Bitcoin is heading towards the 100,000 USDT mark. But what is beneath the bull market? Matti of Zee Prime Capital pointed out the "undercurrent" of the current industry, that is, "the most entertaining results are most likely to occur" and "opportunism is the strongest heresy in cryptocurrency." The following is the full translation. If you left the cryptocurrency industry in 2022, or, if you didn't really leave but were attracted by various surface narratives, hyping Memecoin and chasing possible generational wealth, and occasionally reading some industry articles. Then, you should wonder what is really going on under the surface. Or, what did you miss? In this era, there are two phenomena that seem to envelop the world.
Musk's razor: The most entertaining outcome is most likely to occur (Note: Occam's razor advocates that when solving a problem, the simplest and most direct explanation or solution should be used as much as possible)
What was once entertaining has become serious, and what was once serious has become entertaining
The first is obvious. By 2016 standards, it was bizarre for Musk to run a US department called DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). Now, eight years later, nothing is impossible. As for the second, it’s actually a reflection of the first. The US election has become the de facto season finale of a reality show called (USA). Politics has become entertainment, war casualties are broadcast live, movie plots are used to convey agendas, and social media posts can be prosecuted. One of the little symptoms of “what was once serious has become entertainment” is money. Memecoin, to be exact. Funnymoney, as they call it, is a real-time online meme lottery.
Not everyone can become a meme and profit from it, but everyone can get infinitely close to this goal by rushing Memecoin. Obviously, sovereign states will build up Bitcoin reserves on a large scale (following a group of innovators such as El Salvador and Bhutan) and will not rush to sell off in August like Germany did, leaving the public puzzled. In retrospect, it is obvious that one should not expect a country that decides to continue to shut down nuclear power plants while engaging in a proxy war with its former largest energy supplier to make economically rational decisions. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor is working to eliminate the root cause of all bubbles and try to make Wall Street beat sovereign states in this competition. However, these are (Financial Times)-style news that readers don’t really care about. What is surging under the surface? What has been brewing for a long time and has pried the wheels of the superficial bull market?
If you don’t know who the user is — you are the user
For those in the industry, crypto has become a lifestyle. It’s scary to admit, but it’s true. It’s the sum of consuming premium merchandise from a variety of crypto brands, a lifestyle that repeatedly moves money around, loses money, and still hopes to “retire with honor” without breaking a sweat. To put it in Mable’s (perhaps less directly) words: “It’s a lifestyle where only the ‘now’ and the ‘present’ matter, because the impact of anyone or anything is reflected in almost real time on what we’re experiencing. The concept of an end result is almost obsolete, because the world has truly become an infinite game.” The crypto industry is moving faster and faster as cycles move from “seasons” to “weeks.” The so-called “alt season” is now “alt week.” Narratives rotate faster than ever, and there are more distractions to choose from. The crypto industry has truly entered Kevin Kelly’s protopia, where “today’s problems are caused by yesterday’s technological successes, and the technological solutions to today’s problems will cause tomorrow’s problems.” Crypto is in a state of endless development. Where once incremental improvements wouldn’t show up for a long time, now all it takes is a little push, a dash of liquidity, and an anticipation of political leanings to turn that volume into a financial frenzy. Everything in cryptocurrency is money. It’s money, the hyper-financialization of attention. And everyone is a user, even if they don’t know it. Live in a utopia, in a state of evolution, and you don’t even realize you’re living in it because you’re forced to upgrade every day. Even if you don’t think of yourself as a newbie, you are a newbie every day. “The momentum of technology pushes us to chase the latest technology, which always disappears when the next update comes along, so satisfaction keeps slipping from our hands.” In 2017, on-chain trading via an order book (a nod to Ethredelta) was a bad experience, and AMMs were considered inefficient.In 2018, the problem was that no one wanted tokens. In 2020, the market realized they could make money exchanging tokens permissionlessly on Uniswap and get paid while providing liquidity. Crypto has entered a never-ending state of growth.
The trend is positive, but it is better to give it directly to the "ticker"
What I do know is that each time is different, but not necessarily so. The difference is that the nuances of each craze are beyond what most people imagine and expect. We can’t predict where it will take us, especially given that there are so many ecosystems and applications moving in various directions. My most optimistic guess is that the pace of change will increase, certain waves will return again, and path independence will become the most valuable resource for navigating such an environment. The so-called L1 or L2 ecosystem will become less important as the trend becomes application/use case dominated. Of all the current use cases, I am most interested in the "Proxy" and "DeSci" topics because they complement the existing industries of DeFi and Memecoins. The synergistic dynamics may lead to a Cambrian explosion of new use cases, and while some use cases are more flashy, I still hope that others will bring real changes. If value can flow freely between DeFi, DeSci, and Proxy, we can truly productize "investment progress" and wrap it in a variety of memes. In this way, it will be self-reinforcing and expand the cryptocurrency market to unforeseen places. We need cryptocurrencies to facilitate positive-sum games by creating new markets. And this is probably why big companies in the industry are exploring these topics, which can quickly have real-world impacts. It shouldn’t occur to anyone yet that Memecoins will become real-world assets.
It’s important to note that, as with every craze, the demand for genius ideas produces a constant stream of knockoffs, gimmicks and scams.
The so-called paganism is not actually paganism
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