The Fed's interest rate cut rumors are rising again, and the suspense in the capital market is at an all-time high!

Data shows that the market's expectations for future monetary policy are changing rapidly:

The probability of maintaining the interest rate in December is only 33.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 66.5%! The probability of continuing to hold steady in January next year has dropped to 26.3%, while the market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut has risen to 59.5%, with even "14.2%" betting on a 50 basis point cut!

The capital market's intuition never lies. The rising expectation of an interest rate cut may indicate an escalation in market concerns about economic slowdown or potential financial turmoil. Lower interest rates will reignite the frenzy of asset prices—stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, all sectors are gearing up!

But there is a big question behind this: Will the Fed disappoint everyone? After all, hasty easing may pose greater risks when inflation indicators have not yet been fully tamed! The market signals are clear, but only Powell's team knows the final actions.

Operational Suggestions:

In the face of uncertainty regarding policy shifts, fund allocation should take a dual approach: on one hand, focus on policy-benefiting sectors such as technology, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies; on the other hand, maintain sufficient cash flow to respond to sudden reversals at any time.

Follow Tang Ge, and let's dissect the Fed's underlying strategies together, so we can get ahead in the next allocation!