A recent article published in the authoritative BITCOIN magazine in the cryptocurrency circle raised a question that everyone is curious about: Can this round of Bitcoin's rise be sustained? The article provided a perspective for judgment and observation, which is to study whether this rise is driven by retail investors' FOMO emotions. If so, we are likely in the late stage of a surge, as retail investors rushing in are basically the ones who will be cut. If not, it means that this round of increase is driven by large holders or institutions, and it is likely still in the early stages. As for the conclusion of the article, I can directly tell everyone that the article believes it is the latter, so everyone can rest assured.
First, the simplest method to judge whether retail investors are entering the market is to look at the number of newly created Bitcoin addresses. If we see an increase in newly created addresses, it means more retail investors are rushing in, which usually corresponds to the price peak of Bitcoin, right? Although there has been a moderate rebound in the growth of new addresses in recent months, it is not as sharp as expected, is it? Compared to last year's ETF surge, where the daily number of new addresses reached 791,000, this is completely incomparable, right?
Secondly, another way to judge retail investor FOMO entry is to check the trends in Google searches. Although the search volume for Bitcoin has increased in the past month, it is still far below the peak levels of 2021 and 2017. This indicates that retail investor interest in Bitcoin is recovering but has not yet reached the frenzied state driven by FOMO.
Thirdly, the magazine article also notes that in previous bull markets for Bitcoin, we can see a significant outflow of funds from long-term holders to new investors, which also drove subsequent price increases. However, in this bull market, the flow of funds from long-term holders to new investors is still relatively modest, and a key characteristic is that this increase is driven by spot trading rather than leveraged contracts. Therefore, this increase may be more stable and resilient, as fewer investors will face the risk of forced liquidation.
Finally, who is driving this increase in Bitcoin? Looking at the chart, although the number of retail investor addresses has not significantly increased, we can see that the addresses holding at least 100 Bitcoins from large holders or institutions are increasing. In the past few weeks, these large wallets have added tens of thousands of Bitcoins, with a total value reaching tens of billions of dollars. This growth indicates that the largest investors in Bitcoin are confident in the current price level, and even though Bitcoin is approaching historical highs, they still believe there is further upside potential.
So, in summary, this round of rebound may still be in its early stages. Long-term investors should maintain confidence, as whales are accumulating. The leverage level in the Bitcoin market remains moderate, which are all signs of a healthy and sustainable rebound. As this bull market progresses, the market structure indicates that there may also be a larger wave driven by retail investors in the future. By that time, it is likely to be the end of this round of rebound. Does everyone agree with this view?
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