Placeholder Partner: We have been in a crypto bull market for two years, and SOL has risen over 30 times from the bottom

Placeholder partner Chris Burniske posted on X: “If your friends associate you with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any cryptocurrency, you may be asked what to do. Guiding someone from our current level (BTC around $100,000) is a tricky thing, especially if they are inexperienced investors. From over 10 years of observation, we have learned some lessons to ensure that every action they take is their own responsibility. You may have more knowledge or experience, but that doesn’t mean you are absolutely right. No one has any definite understanding of the market. The only thing you can be sure of is that those who say they 'know for sure' are lying. Try to explain to them which stage of the cycle we are currently in. For me, we have been in this bull market for 2 years now (the bottom was in November/December 2022). From the bottom two years ago, BTC has risen more than 6 times, ETH has risen more than 4 times, and SOL has risen more than 30 times. Personally, if they are beginners, I tend to suggest a certain ratio of BTC ETH and SOL (50/25/25%), with everything else being their own risk to take. Although ETFs and potential sovereign purchases may mean that BTC will not experience the brutal bear markets of the past, every bull enthusiast will come up with various reasons to explain why we will go higher or why we won’t experience a bear market. The 'super cycle' is undoubtedly a collective illusion. I can see the reasons for repeating cycles (peaking in Q4 2025) and the reasons for extending cycles and breaking away from the 4-year pattern. While we may consolidate after the inauguration in the U.S., I do not believe in the claims of shortened cycles. That said, structurally, anything that grows 100 times quickly is prone to at least an 80-90% crash at some point, because too many people sit on profits. Therefore, SOL rising from $8 to $800 in this cycle could mean it bottoms out at $80-160 in the future (like in 2027). So, if a beginner buys in and holds firmly to $240, they will incur losses by the next bear market. It’s hard for people to realize this amid the frenzy of a bull market, but since you’ve been through it, you know, and now you can teach them.”